世界银行-黎巴嫩经济监测，2023年秋季：在新危机中（英）-48页_12mb

Lebanon's Economy in Crisis: A New Escalation

• Recent Developments: After a slight stabilization in late 2022, driven by tourism and remittances, Lebanon's economy is now back in recession due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict. Inflation remains extremely high, averaging 231.3% in 2023, while fiscal deficits are projected at 1.3% of GDP. The current account deficit narrowed to 12.8% of GDP, but external financing needs persist.

• Outlook: Economic activity faces significant contraction, with real GDP growth projected to decline between -0.6% and -0.9% depending on the conflict's intensity. Tourism, once a growth driver, is severely impacted, reducing export revenues. Debt sustainability remains a major concern with high public debt.

• Policy Challenges: The economy is hampered by a persistent political and institutional crisis, unresolved banking sector issues, and inadequate fiscal reforms. Revenue mobilization is low, and monetary policy lacks credibility, with high inflation driven by currency depreciation and imported price increases.

• Risks: Escalation of the conflict could lead to widespread displacement, destruction of key infrastructure, and a deep humanitarian crisis. Inflation may worsen, eroding living standards further, while capital flight could exacerbate financing shortages.

• No Sustainable Recovery: Without a comprehensive resolution plan addressing root causes—such as debt restructuring, banking sector reform, and equitable investment—Lebanon risks long-term economic decline and social instability.