2017年Q2全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）_20页_432kb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2017 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, with 965 responses in Q2 2017, including over 89 CFOs. The survey provides insights into global economic confidence and trends, with its main indices serving as reliable predictors of GDP growth and showing strong correlation with the VIX, or 'fear' index.

Main Indices and Trends

• Global Economic Confidence: Slightly dipped in Q2 2017 but remains relatively high compared to the past couple of years. It reached its second-highest confidence index in two years, consistent with other economic indicators like manufacturing PMIs and GDP figures.
• Regional Confidence:
  • North America remains the most confident region, though confidence slightly declined.
  • South Asia had the second-highest confidence level.
  • Middle East experienced a sharp decline in confidence, reaching its lowest level since Q2 2016.
  • Western Europe saw a significant drop in confidence, with negative outlooks exceeding positive by 17 percentage points.
  • UK confidence hit its lowest level since Q4 2011, largely due to Brexit-related uncertainty.
  • Asia Pacific confidence reached a new record high.
  • Central & Eastern Europe confidence dipped slightly but remained fairly high.

Key Concerns and Opportunities

• Main Concerns:
  • Rising costs (47% globally, 56% in the UK, 48% in Western Europe) – concerns about wages and raw materials.
  • Decreased income (40% globally, 34% in the Eurozone).
  • Exchange-rate movements (32% in the Eurozone, 36% in Asia Pacific, 33% in the UK).
  • Securing prompt payment (also a concern, though less emphasized).
• Least Concerns:
  • Suppliers going out of business (9% globally).
  • Customers going out of business (14% in the US).
• Main Opportunities:
  • Innovation (41% globally).
  • Focus on niche products (34% globally).
  • Improved economic performance in emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which are now growing simultaneously for the first time in two and a half years.

Regional Analysis

North America

• Confidence slightly declined in Q2.
• US confidence fell to its lowest level in a year.
• Concerns centered on rising costs (45%), followed by decreased income (35%).
• Capital expenditure increased to a record high, indicating optimism about investment.

Western Europe

• Confidence fell sharply in Q2, with negative outlooks exceeding positive by 17 percentage points.
• Rising costs (48%) and decreased income (34%) were the main concerns.
• Exchange-rate movements (32%) also caused worry due to the appreciation of the euro against the pound and dollar.

UK

• Economic confidence plummeted to its lowest level since Q4 2011.
• Main concern: rising costs (56%), attributed to the sharp fall in the pound post-Brexit.
• Exchange-rate volatility (33%) and uncertainty over Brexit negotiations are key factors.
• Only 69% of companies are in early stages of planning for Brexit, indicating low preparedness.

Ireland

• Confidence increased slightly in Q2.
• Despite Brexit uncertainty, the economy is performing well, with growth supported by improved exports to the EU.
• 56% of respondents view Brexit risks as greater than opportunities.

Central & Eastern Europe (CEE)

• Confidence dipped slightly but remains high by recent standards.
• The decline is likely linked to Western Europe's confidence drop.
• Concerns include rising costs and weak productivity, with long-term growth held back by poor demographics.

South Asia

• Confidence was the second-highest globally, behind North America.
• Mixed sub-component results: government spending and employment improved, while capital expenditure fell.
• India is recovering from the 2016 crackdown on the shadow economy.
• Pakistan's growth outlook is improving due to Chinese investment and low interest rates.

Asia Pacific

• Confidence reached a new record high.
• Improvement is linked to increased global export demand.
• Rising costs (52%) are a major concern, along with exchange-rate stability.
• Most currencies appreciated against the US dollar, indicating stronger regional economies.

Middle East

• Confidence fell sharply in Q2, mirroring the drop in oil prices.
• Political tensions, such as the Saudi-Qatar diplomatic crisis, contributed to the decline.
• Outlook for the next year is challenging due to rising interest rates and falling oil production.
• Government spending expectations rose, indicating easing of austerity.

Africa

• Confidence slightly increased, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015.
• Government spending expectations remained relatively high, while capital expenditure and employment were still negative.
• Nigeria and South Africa show signs of recovery, with increased oil production and improved agricultural output.

Key Figures

• 56% of UK respondents cited rising costs as their main concern.
• 52% of Asia Pacific respondents cited rising costs.
• 48% of Eurozone respondents cited rising costs.
• 69% of UK companies are still in early stages of Brexit planning.
• The UK's economic growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2018 from 2.0% in 2017.
• The IMF forecasts a slowdown in the UK's growth rate.
• Inflation in the UK reached 2.9% in May 2017, the highest since 2012.

Conclusion

The GECS report highlights a global economic landscape marked by high confidence despite regional dips, particularly in the UK and Middle East. Rising costs and exchange-rate fluctuations are widespread concerns, while innovation and niche products are seen as key opportunities. Political uncertainty, especially in the UK and France, continues to impact economic outlooks, and the effects of Brexit are still being felt. Emerging economies show resilience and growth, while developed economies face challenges in maintaining momentum amid low inflation and rising costs.