2022-01-30-瑞士信贷集团-美国餐厅和食品分销商_2022年的22个主题_327页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of US Restaurants & Food Distributors 2022 Themes

Core Content Overview

This document outlines 22 key themes for the US restaurant and food distribution industry in 2022, including recovery outlook, digital transformation, brand loyalty, unit growth, and macroeconomic factors. It also provides ratings and target prices for major restaurant and food distributor stocks, based on equity research by Credit Suisse.

Main Themes and Key Insights

Restaurant Recovery Outlook

Near-term: Sales recovery is better than expected due to the industry's resilience and consumer demand for dining, despite lingering hesitancy and inflationary pressures.
Long-term: The industry is expected to return to more normalized behavior, with a focus on flow-through and bottom-line growth as companies manage elevated costs.
Structural Trends: Food away from home (FAH) share has increased over the decades, and this trend is expected to continue.

Appetite for Restaurants

Mixed near-term: While some consumers are still hesitant to dine out, overall demand is strong.
Positive long-term: Structural factors such as increased workforce participation and demand for experiences support the industry's long-term fundamentals.

Key Challenges

Labor shortages: Remain a significant challenge, especially in high-traffic areas.
Commodity inflation: Expected to moderate in 2H22 but still poses margin risks.
Price sensitivity: Consumers have shown limited pushback to price increases, but delayed elasticity may affect future performance.

Digital Transformation

Digital Ecosystem: Accelerated adoption of digital tools, including mobile order & pay, delivery, and loyalty programs, to enhance customer retention and operational efficiency.
Technology investment: Expected to increase across all restaurant segments to improve convenience, personalization, and throughput.

Unit Growth

New formats: Expanding into ghost kitchens, virtual brands, and digital-only locations to increase addressable markets.
Franchise growth: Companies with strong franchisee economics and unit growth strategies are expected to outperform.

Brand Engagement

Brand loyalty: Customers are loyal to brands, not just products. Experiences and brand identity are key differentiators.
Premium valuation: Strong brands such as Starbucks, Chipotle, and McDonald's are expected to command premium multiples due to their tribe-like followings and digital capabilities.

Food Distribution

Commodity cost management: A focus on cost savings and efficiency improvements to maintain margins.
Inorganic growth: M&A opportunities are seen as a key driver for growth, especially in new markets and categories.
Sysco (SYY) and US Foods (USFD) are highlighted as leaders with strong organic and inorganic growth potential.

Key Companies and Ratings

Restaurants

Ticker	Company	CS Rating	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Key Thesis
CMG	Chipotle	Outperform	$2,200	56.0%	High growth, margin leverage
PZZA	Papa John's	Outperform	$154	26.5%	Operational enhancements, franchisee economics
DPZ	Domino's Pizza	Outperform	$570	30.1%	Global market share gains, strong digital execution
DRI	Darden Restaurants	Outperform	$180	33.0%	Industry-leading retention, scale efficiencies
TXRH	Texas Roadhouse	Outperform	$115	39.2%	Strong operational execution, off-premise growth
SBUX	Starbucks	Outperform	$132	37.8%	Premium valuation, strong digital focus
BLMN	Bloomin' Brands	Outperform	$30	53.9%	Improved business model, unit growth potential
WEN	Wendy's	Neutral	$27	21.3%	Unit growth concerns, international infrastructure
YUM	Yumi Brands	Neutral	$135	12.1%	Predictable earnings, cautious on valuation
JACK	Jack in the Box	Underperform	$99	11.7%	Valuation gap, SSS consistency concerns

Food Distributors

Ticker	Company	CS Rating	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Key Thesis
SYY	Sysco	Outperform	$97	27.4%	Market share leader, margin profile
PFGC	Performance Food Group	Outperform	$70	67.4%	Strong growth potential, fragmented industry
USFD	US Foods	Outperform	$44	27.8%	Sales improvements, private label mix

Valuation Trends

NTM EV/EBITDA: Restaurants trade at ~13x, 0.5x above the 10-year average of ~12.5x.
P/E Ratio: Restaurants trade at ~21–21.5x, ~1.5–2x below the 10-year average of ~23x.
Premium valuations: Driven by unit growth, international exposure, lower inventory risk, and digital capabilities.
Franchised models: Companies with strong franchisee economics and unit growth prospects command higher valuations.

2021 Performance

Restaurant stocks underperformed the S&P 500, with QSR/fast casual stocks outperforming by +18% vs +27%.
Pizza stocks led the group with PZZA +57% and DPZ +47%.
Casual dining underperformed, with an average of +14%.
Food distributors significantly underperformed, with all stocks down over the last two years.

Outlook for 2022 and Beyond

Uncertainty remains, but long-term fundamentals are positive.
Digital acceleration: Expected to continue, with a focus on personalization, convenience, and efficiency.
Global expansion: Companies like Chipotle and Domino's Pizza are expected to expand internationally.
Brand power: Emphasized as a key driver of customer loyalty and value creation.
Scale and resources: Large chains are better positioned for growth due to capital access, operational scale, and established digital/online infrastructures.

Conclusion

The US restaurant and food distribution industry is expected to recover gradually in 2022, with digital and operational improvements driving value creation. While near-term risks such as labor shortages and commodity inflation persist, long-term structural trends and brand strength support a positive outlook. Companies with strong unit growth, franchisee economics, and digital capabilities are poised for premium valuations, while food distributors are expected to benefit from organic and inorganic growth opportunities.