2021-11-16-瑞士信贷集团-可折叠手机_高端增长的下一个阶段_71页_2mb

Summary of the Foldable Phone Market

Market Growth & Projections:

• The foldable phone market is expected to grow from 9 million units in 2021 to 54 million by 2025, with an 88% CAGR, reaching $63 billion in value.
• Average selling price (ASP) is projected at $1,157 by 2025, creating a new premium segment.
• Samsung leads with a forecasted 65% market share by 2025, down from 90% in 2021.

Key Players & Competitive Landscape:

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): Dominates with vertically integrated supply chain, holding ~90% market share in 2021. Beneficiary of OLED displays and foldable phones.
• Competitors: Apple, BOE, LGD, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo are entering the foldable phone market, expanding the competitive landscape.
• Suppliers: Includes SEMCO (front-end camera), Partron (front camera), KH Vatec (hinges), and other component suppliers.

Technological Developments:

• Designs: Flip/clamshell and vertical fold designs are expected to survive and thrive; vertically foldable smartphones cater to niche users. Flip type offers better affordability and design appeal.
• Hinges & Components: Hinge durability is critical, with KH Vatec being the dominant supplier for Samsung. Chinese panel makers (BOE, CSOT) are ramping up OLED display production.
• Displays: Foldable OLED panels are becoming the standard, with higher resolution, faster refresh rates, and better power efficiency.

Financial Analysis

• Foldable phones contribute significantly to profit growth, accounting for ~8% of Samsung’s handset profits in 2021, rising to ~16% by 2023.
• ASUS and Hisense have applied for foldable iPhone related patents, indicating Apple may enter~2023.

Stock Recommendations

• Top Picks: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SEMCO (009150.KS), Novatek (3034.TW), BOE (000725.SZ).
• Other Names to Note: LG Display, KH Vatec, Partron.
• Valuation: Samsung’s target price is W115,000 (based on 2.1x P/B), reflecting potential earnings gains from foldable sales.

Risks

• Supply chain constraints, potential design fatigue as consumer adoption broadens, higher competition, and production bottlenecks.
• Extensive incubation period required for growth, meaning forecasts may vary widely based on component availability and brand participation.

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# Foldable Phones: Next Stage of High-End Growth

## Global Foldable Phone Market Overview
- **Market Growth:** Foldable phones to grow from 9 million units in 2021 to 54 million by 2025 (88% 5-year CAGR), reaching **$63 billion in value**.
- **Average Selling Price (ASP):** Implied ASP is **$1,157**, signaling a new premium smartphone category.

## Key Market Players
- **Samsung Electronics (005930.KS):**  dominant producer with ~90  market share in 2021, projected to be **65% by 2025**. Receives OUTPERFORM rating with TP at **$115,000**.
- **Competitors:** Apple, BOE, LG Display, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo are expanding into the foldable space.
- **Components Suppliers:** SEMCO (rear-end camera), Partron (front camera), KH Vatec (hinges) play critical roles.

## Technology Evolution
- **Foldable Designs:** Flip/clamshell is preferred for its practicality, offering smaller form factor and durability. Vertical folds cater to specialised users (e.g., S-Pen enabled).
- **Hinge Solutions:** KH Vatec dominates this critical component. Improvements in hinge durability are essential for mass market adoption.
- **OLED Displays:** Foldable OLEDs are driving the premium segment with higher resolution and faster refresh rates. Samsung and BOE lead the supply chain.

## Financial Projection and Investment Outlook
- **Samsung Electronics:** Foldable segment to generate **$63 billion by 2025**.  unit shipments at 19 million by 2023, contributing **~16% to total handset profits** (revenue mix to improve).
- **SEMC:** Forecasted 18% OPM from foldable contributions, with rear-end camera supplying SEC's foldable phones (70% market share).

## Catalysts and Risks
- **Catalysts:** Price reductions aligning foldable ASPs with regular high-end phones (e.g., $1,000 entry point). AAPL's potential entry in 2023.
- **Risks:** Supply chain constraints, initial consumer resistance, and potential design fatigue as technology matures.
- **Valuation:** Samsung’s rating reflects confidence in its early market leadership. Stock performance dependent on component costs and design improvements.

## Stock Recommendations
- **Top Stock Picks:**
  - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): OUTPERFORM
  - SEMCO (00,9150.KS): OUTPERFORM
  - Novatek (3034.TW): OUTPERFORM (V)
  - BOE (000725.SZ): OUTPERFORM

## Conclusion
Foldable phones are moving from experimental to mass-market acceptance. Samsung leads, but global competition is intensifying. The supply chain improvements and affordability make foldable phones a significant growth driver for the coming years.