2021-12-13-瑞士信贷集团-2022年研究展望_主题_领域和风格_292页_13mb

报告摘要

Global Equity Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the Credit Suisse Global Equity Strategy for 2022, focusing on themes, sectors, and investment styles. It provides insights into how to position portfolios in the context of rising inflation expectations, macroeconomic risks, and sector-specific opportunities.

Main Themes

1. Decarbonisation

Electrification is the top sub-theme within decarbonisation, driven by structural growth in electricity demand.
Insulation is a key area with strong payback and increasing regulatory support.
Nuclear is seen as a transitional fuel due to its lower carbon footprint and potential for rapid deployment.
Industrial gases are highlighted for their role in hydrogen and carbon capture, with attractive valuations and pricing power.
Trees are gaining importance in construction and packaging due to their lower emissions and environmental benefits.

2. Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations are expected to rise to 3% by end-2022, despite headline inflation potentially falling.
Commodities and cyclical sectors are seen as inflation hedges.
The US dollar is expected to continue its bear market rally, which is beneficial for pharma, German residential real estate, and dividend aristocrats.

3. Oil Price Spikes

Oil demand could be 3% higher than consensus by end-2023.
Norwegian financials, testing companies, Mexico, and Russia are preferred over IOCs due to their exposure to oil-related activities.

Investment Styles

Overweight value in Europe due to undervaluation and positive earnings revisions.
Benchmark US growth as valuations are extreme and macro drivers are negative.
Overweight US small caps as they are abnormally cheap and benefit from dollar appreciation.
Dividend aristocrats are preferred, especially in the US, as they are undervalued and have strong fundamentals.
Quality bias is maintained, with a focus on low leverage and cost-cutting potential.

Sector Weightings

Overweight Sectors

Banks: Slightly reduced, but still overweight due to low valuations and strong relative earnings.
Life companies: Raised to small overweight due to their correlation with bond yields.
Tech: Small overweight, with software reduced to benchmark.
Mining: Added to overweight, driven by structural growth and inflation hedge.
Tyres and airbags: Added to overweight due to recovery in car production and demand for components.
Paper and Packaging: Remain overweight due to increasing use of paper as a sustainable alternative to plastic.
Construction materials: Remain overweight as they benefit from easing supply-chain bottlenecks.
Employment agencies: Added to overweight due to ongoing labor market bottlenecks.
Reopening trade: Focus on budget airlines and cruise operators.
Pharma: Part of the barbell strategy and preferred as a defensive sector.
German residential real estate: Overweight due to its performance despite falling bond yields.

Underweight Sectors

Non-financial cyclicals: Remain underweight due to high valuations, poor earnings revisions, and exposure to a flattening yield curve.
Luxury goods: Underweight as they are not correlated with the current macro environment.
Capital goods: Underweight due to weak performance and overvaluation.
Global autos: Small underweight due to structural headwinds and weak demand.
Consumer staples: Underweight as they are not aligned with current investment themes.

Key Macro Outlook

Inflation expectations are expected to rise to 3% by end-2022, driven by demand-pull and cost-push factors.
US government bond yields are projected to rise to c2% by end-2022.
Credit spreads are likely to widen due to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
GDP growth is expected to remain above trend in 2022.
Supply-chain bottlenecks are expected to ease, benefiting certain cyclical sectors.
Gold is viewed with caution as an inflation hedge due to disintermediation risk and a stronger USD.

Key Companies and Picks

Outperform-rated companies include: ASML, Schneider, CPFL Energia, Deere, ENEL, Smurfit Kappa, Dongyue Group, Shenzhen Inovance Tech, LONGi Green En Tech, Sembcorp Ind, Kingspan.
Preferred dividend aristocrats: BASF, L&G, Relax, Air Products, Coca-Cola, Emerson.
Top picks in banks: Lloyds, Soc Gen, UBS.
Top picks in life companies: Aegon, L&G, Pru.
Top picks in tech: MSFT, Broadcom, Tyler Technologies, TSMC, TI, Alphabet, Ericsson.
Top picks in mining: Anglo American, Alcoa, Tianqi Lithium.
Top picks in tyres and airbags: Michelin, Conti, Nokian, Autoliv.

Conclusion

The strategy emphasizes decarbonisation as a central theme, with a focus on electrification, insulation, nuclear, industrial gases, and trees. It also highlights inflation expectations and the need to position portfolios accordingly, with a preference for value stocks in Europe, US small caps, and dividend aristocrats. While non-financial cyclicals are underweight, financials, mining, and cyclical components are overweight due to structural growth and macroeconomic tailwinds.