2022-01-03-瑞士信贷集团-2022年展望_又一个表现优异的年份_25页_553kb

Asean Market Strategy Summary

Core Content

The Credit Suisse Asean Market Strategy report highlights the region's continued attractiveness despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and global economic conditions. Asean remains a top investment focus in the APAC portfolio, with valuations still considered cheap and significant growth potential. The report outlines the region's structural strengths, including demographics, low digital and credit penetration, and improving economic indicators, which are expected to drive performance in 2022.

Main Points

Asean's Valuation and Performance

• Still Cheap: Asean markets are among the most attractively valued in the APAC region, with currencies showing potential for appreciation.
• Outperformance: Asean outperformed both the APAC and AxJ indices in 2021, and the report anticipates even better performance in 2022.
• EPS Momentum: EPS revisions have started to outperform AxJ, indicating improving earnings prospects.

Market Preferences

• Indonesia as the Favourite: Indonesia is highlighted as the top Asean market due to its structural strengths, including demographics, current account improvements, and a diverse mix of new and old economy stocks.
• Thailand on Market Weight: Thailand is the only Asean market not in Overweight, due to valuations and concerns over tourism and current account performance.
• Malaysia and Singapore: Both markets are viewed positively, with Malaysia as a currency play and Singapore benefiting from US inflation expectations.

Key Stocks

• Top Picks: The report favours SE (Sea Ltd), Bank Mandiri, Ayala Corporation, CPALL, and IHH Healthcare as the top large cap stocks in Asean.
• Philippines: Ayala Corporation and URC are highlighted as top stocks.
• Malaysia: CIMB and IHH are the top picks.

Currencies

• Upside Potential: All Asean currencies, except the peso, are expected to perform well this year, with the baht showing significant undervaluation.
• Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER): Most Asean currencies have underperformed against the dollar, but this could change as the region's economic fundamentals improve.

Foreign Ownership

• Near All-Time Lows: Foreign ownership of Asean equities and bonds is at historically low levels, suggesting potential for future inflows.
• Reduced Dependence on Foreign Capital: The region's reliance on foreign capital has decreased, which could insulate it from global monetary tightening.

Key Information

Structural Growth Prospects

• Demographics: Asean countries, particularly Indonesia, have strong demographic trends with low old age dependency ratios.
• Credit and E-commerce Penetration: Low levels of credit and e-commerce penetration in Asean provide growth opportunities.
• Modern Retailing: The region is still in the early stages of modern retailing, offering potential for expansion.

Fed Rate Hikes and Asean

• Less Rates-Sensitive: Asean is now more growth-driven than rates-sensitive, a shift from previous years.
• Historical Comparison: Unlike the 2013 Taper Tantrum, the current cycle is expected to yield different outcomes due to structural improvements and lower foreign ownership.

Omicron Risk

• Manageable: High previous infection rates and vaccination efforts are expected to limit the impact of Omicron on Asean economies.
• Tourism Impact: Thailand is more vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on tourism, while other Asean countries are less affected.

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Asean is expected to have the best YoY GDP growth in the region, with the ASEAN 4 economies showing more than 1% acceleration.
• Cyclical Recovery: Asean's economies are recovering from pandemic-related downturns, with improving EPS and GDP figures.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report concludes that Asean is poised for another year of outperformance, driven by structural growth opportunities, improving economic fundamentals, and undervalued assets. While the region is still underperforming in some areas, the combination of low valuations, improving EPS, and a shift towards growth sensitivity makes it an attractive investment opportunity for 2022.