环保行业深度报告：氦气：气体黄金进口依赖97.5_，国产替代加速，碳中和约束供应资源端重估_15页_1mb

Environmental Protection Industry Research Summary

Core Content

This report focuses on the helium industry, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks and carbon neutrality policies on the global helium supply and the opportunities for domestic substitution in China. It also provides investment recommendations for companies involved in helium extraction and related gas operations.

Main Points

• Geopolitical Risks and Helium Price Surge:
  The outbreak of international geopolitical conflict in March 2022 led to a rapid increase in helium prices. In June 2022, Russia imposed an export ban on inert gases, triggering global supply concerns. As a result, China's helium prices rose to 420-460 RMB/m³, an increase of over 300% from the previous range of 100-200 RMB/m³ in 2017.

• Helium as a Strategic Resource:
  Helium is referred to as "gas gold" and is critical in aerospace, semiconductor manufacturing, and advanced scientific research. Global helium production is highly concentrated, with the top three producers being the United States (49%), Qatar (30%), and Algeria (9%), contributing to a CR3 of 88% in 2021. Helium monopoly countries impose strict export controls and restrictions on helium-making equipment.

• Chinese Helium Demand:
  China's helium demand has been steadily growing, driven by high-tech industries and advanced research. In 2020, the country consumed 21.25 million m³, with a CAGR of 5.7% from 2015 to 2020. The main applications are controlled atmosphere (56%) and low-temperature applications (23%), such as in semiconductors, fiber optics, photovoltaics, nuclear magnetic resonance, and military applications.

• Chinese Helium Supply:
  China is heavily reliant on imported helium, with a 97.5% import dependency in 2020. The main sources are Qatar (82%), the United States (9%), and Australia (8%). China has limited helium resources, accounting for only 2% of the world's total and with relatively low helium content. The Hotan River gas field in the Tarim Basin is the first large helium-rich gas field in China, and its development is critical.

• Domestic Substitution and Carbon Neutrality Constraints:
  The gap between domestic and international helium technologies is narrowing. However, carbon neutrality policies are increasing supply-side barriers. LNG companies with access to high-quality helium fields have a competitive advantage as they can produce helium as a by-product with no raw material cost, only bearing fixed manufacturing costs. The marginal profit of BOG projects increases significantly with rising helium prices, reaching 79.2% to 94.8% at 100-400 RMB/m³.

• Investment Recommendations:
  The report recommends focusing on companies with BOG helium extraction capabilities and strong gas sales advantages. Key companies include:

  • Jovo Energy: Plans to develop both land and sea LNG sources, and hydrogen & helium sources in Sichuan.
  • Jinhong Gas: Locks in overseas gas sources with abundant helium reserves, offering first-mover advantages.
  • Kaimeite Gases & Huate Gas: Leading electronic special gas companies.
  • Shuifa Energas: Has a BOG helium production layout.
  • Shudao Equipment & Technology: A key helium-making equipment supplier.

Key Information

• Helium Price Trends:

  • In 2017, the price range was 100-200 RMB/m³.
  • In 2020, due to the pandemic, the consumption fell by 6.4%, but the CAGR from 2015-2020 was 5.7%.
  • In 2022, the price surged to 420-460 RMB/m³, driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply concerns.

• Helium Production and Supply Chain:

  • Helium extraction is primarily done through deep cold separation and BOG extraction.
  • BOG extraction is cost-effective and can be used in LNG projects as a by-product.
  • Storage and transportation are divided into liquid helium and gas helium, with liquid helium being more suitable for long-distance transport.

• Technology Gap:

  • Deep cold extraction is well-established overseas, while BOG extraction is still in development in China.
  • Key equipment such as liquid helium storage tanks and refrigeration systems are import-dependent in China.
  • Technical progress is evident, but core technologies remain underdeveloped.

• Market Risks:

  • Helium price volatility could affect demand and profitability.
  • R&D delays may hinder domestic substitution progress.
  • Increased market competition may reduce industry profitability.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of helium as a strategic resource and the urgent need for domestic production due to geopolitical tensions and carbon neutrality policies. It highlights the potential for growth in the helium industry in China, driven by high-tech development and increased demand. The investment thesis focuses on companies with BOG helium extraction capabilities and strong gas sales channels, with Jovo Energy and Jinhong Gas being key players. The report also notes the risks associated with price fluctuations, R&D progress, and market competition.