期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-winter1998-9_48页_4mb

NBER Winter 1998/9 Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Winter 1998/9 provides an overview of recent research conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), focusing on Health Economics, Inflation Targeting, and related topics. The report highlights the economic impacts of substance use, the role of public policy in shaping health and family outcomes, and the evolving strategies in monetary policy, particularly inflation targeting.

Main Research Areas

1. Health Economics

Key Topics:

• Substance Use and Abuse: Analysis of how price, taxes, and advertising affect the consumption of addictive substances like cigarettes, alcohol, and illegal drugs.
• Pregnancy Outcomes and Infant Health: Examination of the effects of public policies on pregnancy resolution (birth vs. abortion) and their impact on infant and early childhood health.

Main Findings:

• Price Sensitivity: Addictive substances are highly responsive to price changes. A 10% increase in cigarette prices reduces teenage smoking by about 9% among white males and 16% among black males.
• Cocaine and Marijuana: Legalization or price reductions could lead to increased usage, with long-run effects being more significant than short-run ones. For example, a 10% permanent price reduction could increase cocaine use by ~10%.
• Alcohol Use: Alcohol consumption is also sensitive to price, with a long-run elasticity of -0.65. Advertising has been shown to increase motor vehicle fatalities, particularly among young drivers.
• Social and Economic Outcomes: Substance use is linked to higher rates of crime, lower employment, and increased welfare participation. It also affects family structures, such as delaying marriage and increasing single parenthood.
• Domestic Violence: Higher alcohol prices are associated with reduced domestic violence against children.

Policy Implications:

• Policies that raise the cost of alcohol and cigarettes can have significant public health benefits.
• Understanding the long-run effects of price changes is crucial for effective policy design.
• Legalization of drugs may not be the most effective strategy for reducing their use due to the long-run price elasticity.

2. Inflation Targeting

Key Topics:

• Definition and Adoption: Inflation targeting is a monetary policy framework where central banks announce inflation targets and focus on achieving them.
• Global Examples: New Zealand and Canada were early adopters, while the U.S. and European Central Bank (ECB) have not formally adopted it.

Main Findings:

• Germany and Switzerland: Although they refer to "money targeting," their policies are perceived to be inflation-focused, with inflation objectives influencing monetary decisions.
• Bundesbank Analysis: Studies suggest the Bundesbank behaves more like an inflation targeter than a money targeter, as inflation forecasts have a greater impact on policy decisions than money growth forecasts.
• Effectiveness: Germany's approach has led to low and stable inflation, and high central bank credibility. However, there is no evidence that inflation targeting has significantly reduced the output costs of disinflation.

Policy Implications:

• Inflation targeting can enhance central bank credibility and public confidence.
• It may allow for greater flexibility in pursuing short-term economic goals without undermining long-term inflation stability.
• The ECB is expected to adopt a modified version of inflation targeting.

3. Other Research Highlights

a. Pregnancy Resolutions

• Medicaid eligibility expansions have increased birth rates among white women but not among black women.
• Parental involvement laws have small effects on minors overall but larger effects on white 16-year-olds.
• There is no apparent effect on the overall abortion rate from these policy changes.

b. Alcohol and Crime

• Heavy alcohol consumption is associated with lower employment rates and higher unemployment rates.
• Drug use is positively correlated with property crimes like robbery and burglary but not with violent crimes like assault and murder.

c. Long-Term Effects of Policy

• Policies that reduce alcohol or cigarette consumption have broader benefits, including reduced crime and domestic violence.
• Policies that reduce unwanted pregnancies may have smaller payoffs than those that reduce social and environmental deprivation for families.

Key Information

• NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• Funding: Relies on contributions from individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• Publications: Includes Working Papers, books, and databases like the NBER Macroeconomic History Database and Penn World Tables.
• Contact: Subscriptions and changes should be sent to the NBER's Public Information Department at 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398.
• Tax Deductibility: Contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible.

Conclusion

The NBER's Winter 1998/9 issue highlights the importance of price sensitivity in substance use and the effectiveness of public policy in shaping health and family outcomes. It also explores the practical application of inflation targeting in central banking, emphasizing its role in maintaining economic stability and public confidence. The research underscores the need for evidence-based policy-making and the long-term considerations that should guide economic and health interventions.