期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2007number4_48页_779kb

NBER Aging Program Summary

Core Content

The NBER Aging Program focuses on the economic implications of aging populations, particularly in the context of retirement savings, retirement policy, and health and economic circumstances across different countries. The program addresses the challenges posed by demographic changes, including the aging baby boom generation, increasing life expectancy, and the financial sustainability of retirement and health care systems.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Retirement Saving Trends

• Growth of Defined Contribution (DC) Plans: Over the past 25 years, personal retirement accounts like 401(k) plans have become the primary method of retirement saving, replacing traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans.
• Projected Growth: By 2040, average 401(k) assets of those aged 65 are expected to be over six times larger than the peak of traditional DB plans under historical returns. Even with a 300 basis point reduction in returns, the assets would still be 3.7 times larger.
• Impact of Asset Allocation: Research shows that asset allocation strategies significantly affect retirement outcomes. Equity-based allocations provide higher expected utility for individuals with modest risk aversion or substantial wealth outside retirement accounts.
• Expense Ratios: Low expense ratios are critical for maximizing returns, but many investors overlook them in their allocation decisions.
• Default Rules: Automatic enrollment and simplified decision processes increase participation in retirement plans. Employer contributions that do not depend on employee contributions may reduce employee participation and savings.

2. Social Security Reform

• Investment-Based Reforms: Studies explore the risks and benefits of moving toward individual accounts in Social Security. These reforms raise concerns about investment risks and the potential for political risk, which can be as significant as market risk.
• Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Plans: Auerbach and Lee analyze NDC plans as an alternative to fully funded individual accounts, suggesting they could improve fiscal stability by mimicking defined contribution features while retaining pay-as-you-go financing.
• Redistributive Effects: The benefit formula in Social Security can distort retirement behavior, particularly by favoring those with shorter careers. Research also highlights how changes in the benefit formula can affect the distribution of resources between genders.
• Eligibility Age: Some researchers suggest raising the retirement eligibility age due to improved health and longevity. However, this could be complicated by early retirement incentives embedded in current systems.

3. Labor Market Behavior and Retirement

• Retirement Incentives: Social Security and pension plans influence retirement decisions, often encouraging earlier retirement. For example, benefits based on the highest 35 years of earnings discourage long careers.
• International Comparisons: The Aging Program has conducted extensive studies on social security systems across countries, showing how policy design affects retirement behavior, well-being, and labor market participation.
• Immigrant Participation: Older immigrants tend to have higher participation rates in Social Security due to the 10-year eligibility threshold, which is not relevant for most native-born workers.

4. Health and Economic Circumstances

• Health Inequality: Research highlights that health outcomes are closely tied to economic conditions. Higher education, income, and wealth are associated with better health and longer life expectancy.
• Global Perspective: Studies by Deaton, Banerjee, and Duflo show that life satisfaction and health satisfaction are strongly linked to national income, but anomalies exist that make life satisfaction a poor summary indicator of well-being.
• Early Life Factors: Childhood nutrition and disease have long-term effects on adult health, including height and disease risk. These factors are more significant than income or education in some cases.
• Disability Impact: Disability leads to a sharp decline in income and consumption. Better-educated individuals are less likely to suffer from functional disabilities and more capable of coping with them.

Key Information

• Program History: The NBER's Aging Program was established in 1986 and has evolved through large, coordinated research projects.
• Funding Sources: The program is supported by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and the Social Security Administration (SSA), which provide infrastructure and financial support.
• Research Output: Over 100 papers are produced annually by the Aging Program. Some are published in books by the University of Chicago Press.
• Collaboration: The program involves researchers from multiple countries and institutions, including Harvard, MIT, and international organizations.
• Public Information: The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization. Contributions are tax-deductible, and the Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.

Conclusion

The Aging Program at NBER provides critical insights into how aging demographics affect retirement savings, policy design, labor market behavior, and health outcomes. Its research emphasizes the need for flexible and sustainable retirement and health care systems that can adapt to changing economic and social conditions.