期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2007number3_28页_1mb

NBER Political Economy Program Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) launched the Political Economy Program in 2007, marking a significant shift in the field of economic research. Political economy is the study of how political forces influence economic policy and outcomes, with a focus on distributive conflicts, political institutions, and the interplay between culture, ethnicity, and economic development.

The program reflects the growing importance of political economy in mainstream economics, driven by the need to understand how institutions, policies, and political structures shape economic behavior and performance. It builds on the contributions of earlier schools of thought, such as the Public Choice School, but integrates modern methodologies like rational expectations, game theory, and advanced econometrics.

Main Topics and Research Areas

• Democracy and Development:
  Research explores the relationship between democracy and economic growth, emphasizing that democratic institutions can foster growth, especially in advanced sectors. However, there is debate over the role of education and per capita income in shaping democratic institutions.

• Culture, Ethnicity, and Beliefs:
  Cultural traits, including family structures, ethnic identities, and historical legacies, are shown to influence economic choices and political outcomes. The formation of beliefs is also studied through the role of media and social interactions.

• U.S. Elections and Political Behavior:
  Papers analyze how elections affect economic policy and public opinion, including the role of media bias, the impact of political dynasties, and the effects of unpredictable elections on policy shocks.

• Institutions and Policy Outcomes:
  The influence of political institutions on economic outcomes is a central theme, with studies on the persistence of inefficient states, the role of competition in political markets, and the effects of electoral rules on policy reforms.

• Corruption and Governance:
  Corruption is examined as a major obstacle to economic development and policy effectiveness. Research highlights how corruption affects trade, budget processes, and social security systems, and how it can be measured and mitigated.

Key Findings and Contributions

• Democratic Capital: A concept introduced by Persson and Tabellini to measure the stability of democratic institutions and their impact on economic and political change.

• Political Business Cycles: Studies by Brander and Drazen suggest that institutional differences affect the occurrence and nature of political business cycles.

• Institutional Reforms: Research by Ardagna, Trebbi, and Alesina shows that factors such as political competition and institutional design are critical in determining the likelihood and success of reforms.

• Cultural Influence: Papers by Alesina and Giuliano argue that family structures and cultural norms significantly impact economic behavior and policy outcomes.

• Media and Beliefs: The media's role in shaping public opinion is highlighted, with studies on how media bias and local news influence electoral outcomes and social capital.

• Corruption and Development: Corruption in local governments is shown to hinder development and policy enforcement, with examples from Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey.

NBER News and Leadership

• Martin Feldstein's Transition: Feldstein will step down as NBER President in June 2008. A search committee led by Michael Moskow will be formed to find his successor.

• NBER's Structure: The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization that relies on contributions from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence.

• Directors and Officers:

  • President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
  • Vice President for Administration and Budget: Susan Colligan
  • Controller: Kelly Horak
  • Board of Directors includes prominent economists from various universities and organizations.

Conclusion

The Political Economy Program at NBER is a reflection of the increasing relevance of political forces in economic analysis. It covers a wide range of topics, from the role of institutions in policy outcomes to the impact of culture and media on economic development. The program not only contributes to academic discourse but also provides policymakers with valuable insights into the complexities of governance and economic performance.

Research Summaries

The Market for Scientists and Engineers

Richard B. Freeman examines the concerns over the U.S. science and engineering job market, noting that these worries are not based on a classic labor shortage but rather on the declining U.S. dominance in the field. With increased competition from countries like China, India, and the EU, the U.S. is losing its comparative advantage in high-tech industries. This shift has implications for both economic competitiveness and national security, as the U.S. may no longer hold a monopoly on technological innovation and R&D.

• Key Points:

  • The U.S. share of science and engineering workers is declining globally.
  • The U.S. is losing its lead in R&D, scientific output, and high-tech exports.
  • The rise of other countries in these fields is changing the global dynamics of knowledge production and application.
  • The implications for U.S. workers and competitiveness are significant, especially in the context of globalization and trade models like NAFTA.

• Future Outlook:

  • The U.S. will need to adapt to a more competitive global landscape.
  • The challenge lies in maintaining leadership in science and engineering without relying on a monopoly of talent.
  • The program emphasizes the importance of understanding how changes in the market for scientists and engineers affect long-term economic and technological outcomes.