2017至2025年基里巴斯综合能源路线图（英文版）_136页_2mb

报告摘要

Kiribati Integrated Energy Roadmap (2017-2025) Summary

Core Content

The Kiribati Integrated Energy Roadmap (KIER) outlines a long-term strategy to transform the energy sector in Kiribati, a small island nation in the central Pacific Ocean, towards sustainability, affordability, and energy independence by 2025. The roadmap is developed in response to the country's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly petroleum products, which contribute to high energy costs and vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations. The KIER is designed to reduce fossil fuel dependence, increase renewable energy (RE) utilization, and improve energy efficiency (EE) across all sectors.

Main Purpose and Scope

The KIER aims to:

Improve energy security by reducing reliance on imported oil.
Increase access to renewable energy and energy efficiency measures.
Support climate change mitigation by promoting clean energy technologies.
Address institutional, regulatory, and technical challenges in the energy sector.
Cover all sectors, including power generation, transport, buildings, and desalination.

Key Findings and Recommendations

Key Findings:

High fossil fuel dependence: In 2014, 63% of Kiribati's energy came from imported petroleum, with bioenergy and solar contributing the rest.
Stable demand: Under the "business as usual" (BAU) scenario, energy demand is expected to remain stable through 2025.
Non-technical losses: These losses are significant, amounting to 10.36% of total energy generation, primarily due to unmetered services and unbilled electricity.
Need for modernization: The current power grid requires modernization to accommodate variable renewable energy (VRE), such as solar and wind, with the integration of storage systems and advanced control mechanisms.
Renewable desalination potential: Renewable-powered desalination is cost-competitive and can be used to address water shortages, especially on South Tarawa and Kiritimati.

Key Recommendations:

Optimize fossil fuel use: Implement reforms to reduce fossil fuel reliance, including switching from kerosene to LPG for cooking, and introducing energy efficiency measures (EE-DSM).
Expand renewable energy deployment: Focus on solar PV, wind, and bioenergy to increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix.
Introduce new technologies: Explore electric vehicles, desalination systems, and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) for sustainable energy solutions.
Improve energy data and management: Enhance data collection, grid operations, and institutional capacity to support renewable integration and efficiency.

Renewable Energy Resources

Solar energy: Abundant in Kiribati, with high solar irradiance levels.
Wind energy: Potential for marine vessels and onshore applications.
Bioenergy: Primarily from coconut oil (CNO), which is being explored as an alternative fuel for transport and power generation.

Energy Sector Status

Current power system: Relies heavily on diesel generators, with limited renewable integration.
PUB challenges: High non-technical losses (20.63%), poor maintenance, and insufficient cash flow.
Electricity demand: South Tarawa has a higher demand compared to other islands, with unbilled uses contributing significantly to energy consumption.

Renewable Energy Expansion in Power Generation

South Tarawa: Targeted for solar PV expansion, with battery storage and grid integration as key enablers.
Kiritimati: Plans to increase renewable energy share to over 55% in the larger zone and 80% in the smaller zone by 2025 through PV, wind, and battery storage.
Outer Islands: Expansion of solar home systems (SHS) and renewable desalination is recommended.

Energy Efficiency Measures

Demand-side management (DSM): Focuses on lighting improvements, refrigeration upgrades, and cooling load reductions.
Supply-side management (SSM): Aims to improve generator efficiency and reduce fuel consumption.
Targets:
- Reduce non-technical losses to below 5%.
- Achieve electricity demand reductions through EE-DSM.

Implementation Plan

PUB reforms: Separation into Kiribati Power and Kiribati Water and Sewerage.
Grid restructuring: Kiritimati will be divided into three independent zones.
Financing: A detailed financing plan is proposed to support EE-DSM, renewable energy projects, and desalination.

Key Challenges

High fossil fuel dependence leads to economic vulnerability and environmental degradation.
Non-technical losses are a major barrier to cost recovery and efficiency.
Inadequate infrastructure and lack of maintenance hinder the performance of the power system.
Climate change threatens freshwater supply and infrastructure, necessitating renewable desalination and grid modernization.

Key Solutions

Fossil fuel reduction:
- Implement LPG cooking substitution.
- Reduce fossil fuel use in power generation by 22% through EE measures.
- Introduce PUB structural reforms.
Renewable energy expansion:
- Increase solar PV and desalination in South Tarawa.
- Expand wind and PV in Kiritimati.
- Promote bioenergy (CNO) in transport.
Energy efficiency initiatives:
- Reduce non-technical losses to under 5%.
- Improve lighting, refrigeration, and cooling systems.
- Promote efficient cooking and electric vehicles.
Desalination and water management:
- Address water leakage and rainwater collection before investing in desalination.
- Use reverse osmosis (RO) powered by PV or wind for future desalination needs.
Technology introduction:
- Explore OTEC for long-term energy generation.
- Implement clean marine technologies such as soft sails, hybrid solar, and CNO-powered vessels.

Conclusion

The KIER is a comprehensive roadmap that addresses the vulnerability of Kiribati's energy sector to climate change and fossil fuel dependence. It outlines policy frameworks, action plans, and specific targets for renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency improvements, and infrastructure modernization. The implementation of these measures will support economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy independence for Kiribati.