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Renewable Energy Roadmap for the Republic of Cyprus Summary

Core Content

The Renewable Energy Roadmap for the Republic of Cyprus is a comprehensive analysis aimed at guiding the country's transition to a more sustainable and economically viable energy system. It is developed by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with the Cyprus University of Technology (CUT) and the Swedish Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), and supported by the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

The report outlines six key scenarios for the evolution of Cyprus' electricity generation mix up to 2030, considering various energy system developments such as the availability of natural gas, the implementation of international interconnectors, and the potential for renewable energy deployment. These scenarios help assess the impacts of different policy decisions on energy costs, job creation, and environmental sustainability.

Main Viewpoints

1. Renewable Energy Potential

• Solar PV is the dominant renewable energy technology in all scenarios, expected to supply 15% to 27% of Cyprus' electricity by 2030.
• Wind energy is the second most important renewable source, contributing 5% to 9% of electricity supply.
• Renewable energy could provide 25% to 40% of Cyprus' electricity by 2030, significantly reducing reliance on oil and lowering generation costs.

2. Economic Benefits

• The deployment of renewable energy is projected to create between 11,000 and 22,000 jobs in Cyprus by 2030.
• Generation costs are expected to decrease from EUR 130/MWh in 2013 to EUR 83-92/MWh by 2030, driven by the shift from oil to natural gas and renewables.
• Accurate energy forecasts reduce integration costs for transmission and distribution system operators and increase revenues for independent power producers (IPPs) and utilities.

3. Policy and Market Considerations

• The current electricity market design poses challenges for renewable energy competitiveness, including:
  • Fixed grid use fees for net metering customers, which discourage self-consumption.
  • Limited market access for renewable energy technologies (RETs) in ancillary services.
  • Uncapped and non-compensated curtailment of RETs, which increases financial risk for investors.
• Market incentives for flexibility in thermal generation and net-billing schemes are recommended to improve renewable integration and reduce costs.

Key Information

1. Scenarios Overview

• SC1 (Energy Efficiency without Interim Gas Solution): Focuses on energy efficiency, with no interim gas solution. Solar PV is the main contributor, with a renewable share of 25.6% by 2030.
• SC2 (Extra Efficiency with Interim Gas Solution): Assumes more energy efficiency and a successful interim gas solution. Renewable share reaches 28.3% by 2030.
• SC3 (Energy Efficiency with Interim Gas Solution): Similar to SC2 but with the same energy efficiency assumptions as SC1. Renewable share is 25.6% by 2030.
• SC4 (LNG Export Terminal): Includes an LNG export terminal. Renewable share is 26.4% by 2030.
• SC5 (EuroAsia Interconnector): Assumes the interconnector is implemented, allowing for more renewable integration. Renewable share reaches 40.1% by 2030.
• SC6 (LNG Export Terminal and EuroAsia Interconnector): Combines elements of SC4 and SC5. Renewable share is 33.2% by 2030.

2. Renewable Energy Job Creation

• The deployment of 1 GWp of solar PV by 2030 could generate around 20,000 new jobs.
• Wind energy is also expected to contribute significantly, with 3,274 additional jobs in SC5 and 3,098 additional jobs in SC6.
• Solar thermal and solar PV can leverage existing synergies, enhancing job creation potential.

3. Energy Efficiency and Tourism

• Energy efficiency improvements in the tourism sector offer substantial potential for reducing energy demand and increasing renewable penetration.
• Regular energy surveys are recommended to improve the accuracy of national energy balance and support better policy planning.

Recommendations

• Implement market incentives for flexibility in thermal generation to reduce must-run requirements and enhance renewable integration.
• Transition from net-metering to net-billing, allowing renewable energy to be sold at market price or a feed-in tariff below marginal generation cost.
• Maintain feed-in tariffs until a well-functioning market for renewable energy is established, including participation in ancillary services.
• Improve forecasting accuracy to reduce integration costs and increase the share of variable renewable energy (VRE).
• Revise grid codes to allow distributed renewable energy technologies to provide ancillary services, reducing the need for additional infrastructure.
• Accelerate the permitting process for renewable energy projects to reduce deployment delays and lower generation costs.
• Invest in smart technologies and energy-efficient systems to support the integration of VRE and improve grid stability.

Technical Studies

• The roadmap includes two technical studies:
  • VRE production forecasting, which provides insights into the potential of variable renewable energy.
  • State-of-the-art technologies for grid support services from VRE systems, including power electronics and smart grid solutions.
• These studies emphasize the importance of grid support services and the role of energy storage in facilitating the integration of VRE.

Conclusion

The roadmap highlights the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy for Cyprus, especially in the context of high electricity costs and reliance on imported fuels. It provides quantitative insights into the potential of different technologies and scenarios, supporting informed policy decisions. The transition to renewable energy is seen as a key step in achieving energy security, reducing costs, and promoting sustainable development.