亚开行-可再生能源驱动的马尔代夫的光明前景：2020-2030年能源行业路线图（英文）-2020.11-116页_3mb

Summary of the Maldives Energy Sector Road Map 2020-2030

Core Content

The Maldives Energy Sector Road Map 2020-2030 outlines a strategic plan to transition the country's energy system from fossil fuel dependence to a sustainable, renewable energy-based model. The document is prepared by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and highlights the need for energy efficiency, renewable energy integration, and technological innovation to support the country's economic and environmental goals.

The Maldives consists of 1,192 small islands in the central Indian Ocean, with a population of 533,941 people as of 2019. The economy is heavily reliant on tourism, which accounts for ~25% of GDP, but the coronavirus pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in this model, emphasizing the need for economic diversification and reliable, affordable energy supply.

Main Objectives

• Transition to a low-carbon energy sector.
• Reduce fossil fuel dependence and import costs.
• Improve energy security and economic resilience.
• Achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially related to climate change, energy access, and economic growth.

Key Points

1. Renewable Energy Resources

• Maldives has abundant renewable energy resources, including solar, wind, and ocean energy.
• The country has the potential to produce green hydrogen using surplus renewable energy.
• Small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG) could replace part of diesel consumption with a more efficient and less polluting alternative.

2. Two Scenarios

• Base Case Scenario:

  • Aims to meet the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.
  • Forecasts a 29% reduction in fossil fuel use compared to business-as-usual.
  • Projects fossil fuel consumption to increase from 674,000 tons in 2020 to 864,000 tons in 2030.

• Paradigm Shift Scenario:

  • A more ambitious and transformative approach.
  • Aims for a 52% reduction in fossil fuel use compared to business-as-usual.
  • Forecasts fossil fuel consumption to be 583,000 tons in 2030 (a net reduction of 13.5%).

3. Sector Assessment

• Fuel Imports:

  • Account for ~10% of GDP.
  • Diesel is the primary fuel used, primarily for electricity generation, industrial processes, and sea transport.
  • Petrol is used mainly for road transport, LPG for cooking, and aviation fuel for airplanes.

• Electricity Subsector:

  • Universal electricity access was achieved in 2008.
  • Diesel generators are widespread, with ~290 MW installed in 186 inhabited islands and ~144 MW in resort islands.
  • Renewable energy systems installed across the country amount to ~21.5 MW.
  • Electricity costs are among the highest in South Asia, with some islands paying up to $0.70/kWh.

• Transport Subsector:

  • Sea transport is the most expensive due to diesel costs.
  • Land transport is concentrated in the Greater Male' Region.
  • LPG is the primary fuel for cooking.

4. Strategy for the Electricity Subsector

• Flagship Interventions:

  • Focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and technology integration.
  • Include hybrid solar PV-diesel systems, floating PV, ocean energy, and hydrogen-based energy storage.

• Key Interventions:

  • Supply Side:

    • Dual fuel choice (diesel - LNG) for new generators in Hulhumale’ and Thilafushi.
    • Interconnection of power grids to improve reliability and efficiency.
    • Reduction of distribution losses to 5% by 2030.

  • Demand Side:

    • Building code revisions and certification mechanisms.
    • LED street lighting and energy efficiency labeling.
    • Smart meter installation and phase-out of inefficient lighting bulbs.

• Renewable Energy Targets:

  • Base Case: 13% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
  • Paradigm Shift: 38% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

5. Strategy for Other Subsectors

• Transport:

  • Sea transport will benefit from hybrid systems and fuel-efficient vessels.
  • Road transport will see reduced diesel use due to energy efficiency measures and electrification.

• Cooking:

  • LPG will continue to be the primary fuel for cooking.
  • LPG use is expected to increase in the base case scenario due to reduced tourism demand.

6. Enabling the Transition

• Policy and Regulatory Measures:

  • Need for a strong policy framework to support the transition.
  • Regulatory reforms to facilitate renewable energy investments.

• Institutional Arrangements:

  • Strengthening institutions to ensure effective implementation.
  • Enhancing coordination between government agencies, utility companies, and the private sector.

• Financing:

  • Public-private partnerships are encouraged.
  • Net-metering tariffs and PPAs are proposed for renewable energy projects.

Key Information

• The POISED project (Preparing Outer Islands for Sustainable Energy Development) is a flagship initiative aimed at transforming at least 160 islands into hybrid energy systems.
• The ASPIRE project (Accelerating Sustainable Private Investments in Renewable Energy) supports rooftop solar PV and floating PV.
• The roadmap aligns with the Maldives Energy Policy and Strategy 2016 and the Strategic Action Plan (SAP) 2019-2023.
• Energy efficiency is a core pillar of the roadmap, targeting reductions in energy consumption and costs without compromising quality of life.
• The paradigm shift scenario requires more robust policy and financial frameworks, as well as international collaboration.
• The document includes a comprehensive list of abbreviations, weights and measures, and tables and figures to support the analysis and planning.

Conclusion

The Maldives Energy Sector Road Map 2020-2030 is a comprehensive strategy to ensure a sustainable and resilient energy future. It emphasizes renewable energy integration, energy efficiency, and technological innovation as key drivers for economic growth, climate resilience, and energy security. The roadmap provides guidance for government agencies, utility companies, and the private sector to coordinate efforts and align with national priorities.