20231211-东吴证券-国防军工行业跟踪周报_正确认识人事调整影响_重视当前拐点布局窗口期_8页_537kb

报告摘要

Date and Analysts: Report published on December 11, 2023, by analysts Su Lizan, Xu Mu, and Gaao Zhengtai, maintaining an "增持 (Hold)" recommendation.
Core Message: Positive outlook for defense industry due to expected mid-term order releases and geopolitical factors, with valuation likely to improve through order-driven growth and incremental capital inflows.

Recent Trends: The defense sector (based on Shenzhen classification) declined by -3.8% over the past five trading days (December 4-December 8, 2023), ranking among the worst performers. Cumulative return since the year's start was -8.42%, placing it in the bottom 18% of all industries.
Market Drivers: Decline attributed to lower-than-expected order execution delays and personnel adjustments in the sector, though these are expected to resolve with ongoing mid-term adjustments.

Valuation Levels: Current PE-TTM is approximately 48x, below historical averages (55-72x over the past decade), indicating undervaluation despite recent sell-offs. Many companies are near their lowest valuations from 2022's market downturn.
Fundamental Shift: Despite challenges like order gaps and reduced military spending momentum, the industry is entering a potential reversal phase with mid-term orders expected to boost growth, offering a window for valuation repair.

Catalysts: Expected issuance and distribution of mid-term adjustment orders, alongside events like increased military cooperation and C919 aircraft orders. Geopolitical tensions and global elections (e.g., Taiwan, India, U.S. elections in 2024) may heighten defense-related activities.
Macro Outlook: 2024 risks include heightened geopolitical uncertainty, potentially driving military modernization needs and global demand for defense products.

Focus Areas: Prioritize military aircraft, civil aviation (e.g., C919 program for large passenger planes), defense sector reforms, and military trade opportunities. Look for incremental orders, reform incentives, and targeted央企 (state-owned enterprise) stocks.
- Specific Recommendations:
  - Military Aircraft: Companies like 中航沈飞 and 中航西飞, focusing on new orders and operational efficiency.
  - Civil Aircraft:民机产业链, with C919 driving demand for related suppliers.
  - Reforms:国企改革 and military-to-civilian technology transfer.
  - Military Trade: Enhanced global military exports, particularly in areas like drones and naval platforms.
Key Stocks:
- 中航沈飞: Expect orders from new aircraft programs; high-beta exposure.
- 江航装备: Reform-driven growth in aircraft platforms.
- 高华科技: Strong position in military sensors.
- Other Notable: 华秦科技, 铂力特 (undervalued tech firms), 北方导航 (military trade focus).

Potential Risks: Order execution delays, slower reform progress, or lower-than-expected earnings could negatively impact performance. The valuation may remain vulnerable to market sentiment shifts.

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