20260421-招银国际-北方华创-002371.SZ-Building_for_the_next_leg_of_WFE_growth_5页_937kb

Naura Technology (002371 CH) Summary

Core Content

Naura Technology reported FY25 revenue of RMB39.4bn, reflecting a $31%$ YoY increase, which aligns with the Bloomberg consensus. However, net profit declined by $1.8%$ YoY to RMB5.5bn, underperforming expectations due to increased R&D investment and operational expenses from Kingsemi consolidation and hiring. Despite the decline in net profit, the company continues to show strong top-line momentum, driven by robust growth in IC equipment sales, which increased by over $50%$ YoY. The company's etching and deposition segments both exceeded RMB10bn in FY25, indicating a solid position in China's domestic WFE supply chain.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • FY24A: RMB30,075 million (36.2% YoY)
  • FY25A: RMB39,353 million (30.9% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB51,977 million (32.1% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB65,752 million (26.5% YoY)
  • FY28E: RMB81,559 million (24.0% YoY)

• Net Profit:

  • FY24A: RMB5,622 million (44.2% YoY)
  • FY25A: RMB5,522 million (-1.8% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB7,739 million (40.2% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB11,049 million (42.8% YoY)
  • FY28E: RMB15,595 million (41.1% YoY)

• Earnings Per Share (EPS):

  • FY24A: RMB7.64
  • FY25A: RMB7.64
  • FY26E: RMB10.71
  • FY27E: RMB15.30
  • FY28E: RMB21.59

• P/E Ratio:

  • FY24A: 61.6
  • FY25A: 60.2
  • FY26E: 44.0
  • FY27E: 30.8
  • FY28E: 21.8

• Gross Margin:

  • FY24A: 40.1%
  • FY25A: 40.1%
  • FY26E: 41.5%
  • FY27E: 43.0%
  • FY28E: 43.0%

• Net Margin:

  • FY24A: 16.8%
  • FY25A: 14.9%
  • FY26E: 16.8%
  • FY27E: 19.1%
  • FY28E: 19.1%

• ROE:

  • FY24A: 16.1%
  • FY25A: 20.3%
  • FY26E: 18.7%
  • FY27E: 22.1%
  • FY28E: 25.0%

• Target Price: RMB540.00 (Previously RMB460.00)

• Current Price: RMB471.23

• Up/Downside: 14.6%

Key Information

• IC Equipment Growth:

  • 4Q25: Over $50%$ YoY growth
  • 2026E: Expected to grow by over $40%$ YoY

• Profitability Headwinds:

  • 4Q25 margin pressure due to product validation and non-IC segment underperformance
  • R&D expenses increased by $46%$ YoY, and admin expenses rose by $102%$ YoY due to Kingsemi consolidation and headcount expansion

• Profitability Outlook:

  • Expected to improve progressively as validated tools move to volume production
  • Product mix shifting toward higher-margin IC equipment
  • Operating leverage strengthening in 2H26

• Strategic Positioning:

  • Strong position in China's WFE localization trend
  • Broad portfolio of WFE products, including 12-inch PVD, vertical furnace systems, and HBM-related hybrid bonding solutions
  • Expected to benefit from domestic foundry capex expansion

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Beijing Sevenstar Huadian Technology Group: 33.6%
  • Beijing Electronics Holding: 9.4%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: RMB340,387.8 million
  • 52-Week High/Low: RMB523.88 / RMB299.42
  • Total Issued Shares: 722.3 million

• 12-Month Price Performance:

  • Absolute: 0.5% (1-mth), -8.4% (3-mth), 17.8% (6-mth)
  • Relative: -5.8% (1-mth), -11.2% (3-mth), 3.2% (6-mth)

Analyst Recommendations and Comparisons

• Analyst Rating: BUY (Maintain)
• CMBIGM vs. BBG Consensus:
  • Revenue: CMBIGM slightly higher in FY26E, FY27E
  • Gross Profit: CMBIGM slightly higher in FY26E, FY27E
  • Net Profit: CMBIGM lower in FY26E, slightly lower in FY27E
  • EPS: CMBIGM lower in FY26E, slightly lower in FY27E
  • Gross Margin: CMBIGM slightly lower in FY26E, higher in FY27E
  • Net Margin: CMBIGM lower in FY26E, higher in FY27E

Peer Comparison

Financial Summary

• Operating Profit: Expected to grow from FY24A to FY28E
• Net Profit: Expected to increase significantly, with growth from FY25A to FY28E
• Cash Flow: Positive net cash from operations, with expected increases in 2026E and beyond
• Capital Expenditure: Expected to increase in 2026E and beyond
• Debt and Liquidity: Current ratio is expected to remain stable, with some decline in 2026E

Valuation and Outlook

• Forward P/E: Expected to decrease from 60.2 in FY25A to 21.8 in FY28E
• Margin Expansion: Expected to reaccelerate from 2027E onward due to a more favorable product mix and stronger operating leverage
• Earnings Inflection: Anticipated in 2027E with improved profitability
• Growth Runway: Expected to expand into logic, memory, and advanced packaging with new product offerings

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views and are not influenced by compensation
• No trading or dealings in the stock within 30 days prior to the report's issue
• No trading or dealings within 3 business days after the report's issue
• No conflict of interest affecting the report's objectivity

Important Disclosures

• The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security
• The report is subject to change without notice
• CMBIGM may issue other reports with different conclusions
• CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned

Distribution Restrictions

• United Kingdom: Only for persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d)
• United States: Intended for "major US institutional investors" only
• Singapore: Distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and regulated by MAS

Conclusion

Naura Technology is well-positioned to benefit from China's WFE localization trend and domestic foundry capex expansion. Despite near-term margin pressures due to increased R&D and validation costs, the company is expected to see profitability improvements as scale benefits emerge and product mix shifts toward higher-margin IC equipment. The analyst maintains a BUY rating with an updated target price of RMB540.00, based on a three-year historical forward average P/E.