20260330-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-Group_OPAT_back_to_double-digit_rise_expect_CSM_to_return_to_positive_growth_in_2026E_6页_937kb

Ping An (2318 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Ping An delivered robust FY25 results, with Group OPAT rising by 10.3% YoY to RMB134.4bn, reflecting a strong performance across various segments. The 4Q25 OPAT growth reached 35.3%, slightly below the CMBI estimate of RMB135.9bn. Group NPAT was RMB134.8bn, up 6.5% YoY, which is slightly above the CMBI estimate of RMB133.1bn. The company's NBV increased by 29.3% YoY to RMB36.9bn, driven by strong growth in agency, bancassurance, and telemarketing channels. The CSM balance modestly declined by 0.8% YoY but is expected to return to positive growth in 2026E.

Main Points

• Group OPAT:

  • Rose to RMB134.4bn in FY25, up 10.3% YoY.
  • 4Q25 OPAT growth reached 35.3%, slightly below the CMBI estimate.
  • Fintech OPAT turned positive to RMB249mn.

• L&H Segment:

  • OPAT rose 7.5% YoY to RMB103.3bn, with 2H25 growth at 12.5% YoY.
  • L&H operating variance and other gains increased by 17% YoY to RMB9.4bn.
  • CSM release amounted to RMB68.2bn, down 4.2% YoY, but management expects a return to positive growth in 2026E.

• P&C Segment:

  • UWP almost doubled YoY to RMB10.7bn, driven by auto, agriculture, and guarantee insurance.
  • COR improved to 96.8%, down 1.5pct YoY.
  • P&C net profit fell 2.8% YoY to RMB14.5bn due to a high base for investment income.

• Investment Performance:

  • Core equities (stocks + equity funds) amounted to RMB1.24tn in FY25, representing 19.2% of total investment assets.
  • Net/comprehensive investment yield was 3.7% / 6.3% in FY25, with a slight decline in net investment yield but an increase in comprehensive investment yield to RMB325bn (+22% YoY).
  • Total investment assets reached RMB6.5tn, up 13.2% YoY.

• Valuation Metrics:

  • The stock is trading at 0.6x FY26E P/EV and 0.8x FY26E P/B.
  • Dividend yield is estimated at 5.6%, the highest among peers.
  • Target Price is HK$90, implying 0.9x FY26E P/EV and 1.2x FY26E P/B.

Key Financial Highlights

• EPS:

  • Reported EPS for FY25 was RMB7.68, with CMBI estimates revised down by 1% to 2% for FY26-27E to RMB7.85 and RMB8.33, respectively.
  • FY28E EPS is estimated at RMB9.00.

• NBV:

  • Grew 29.3% YoY to RMB36.9bn.
  • Bancassurance NBV surged 138% YoY to RMB9.4bn.

• Net Profit:

  • Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB134.778bn in FY25.
  • Expected to rise to RMB157.973bn in FY28E.

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Charoen Pokphand Group Company Ltd holds 13.0%.
  • UBS Group AG holds 9.0%.

Key Risks

• Regulatory Tightening: Potential tightening on life insurance and financial conglomerates.
• Equity Market Volatility: Increased volatility could impact investment returns.
• Low-Interest Rate Environment: Prolonged low rates may affect profitability.
• Pricing Competition: Intensified competition in the P&C industry.
• Asset Quality Deterioration: Possible decline in asset quality.

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Target Price: HK$90.00
• Up/Downside: 51.8%

Valuation Ratios

Related Reports

• Banca fuelling NBV growth in jumpstart sales; 4Q earnings could ease on growth stock corrections, 23 Jan 2026
• China Insurance - Easing solvency risk factors to steer insurance funds into long-term stockholdings, 8 Dec 2025
• 3Q earnings beat; improving business quality with catalysts across-the-board worth to expect, 31 Oct, 2025
• 1H25 a mixed bag: NBV beat while OPAT in line, Aug 28, 2025
• 1Q25 NBV stayed robust lifting L&H OPAT back to positive growth, Apr 28, 2025

Summary Table

Conclusion

Ping An is expected to maintain strong performance in FY26E with a focus on improving CSM balance and leveraging equity market gains. The company's diversified business segments, including P&C and Fintech, are contributing positively to overall profitability. Despite potential risks, the current valuation suggests an attractive opportunity, with the stock trading at a discount relative to its intrinsic value. The BUY rating is maintained, and the target price remains at HK$90.