20240516-华泰期货-PX_TA_PF日报_浙石化PX意外降负_PX和PTA反弹_15页

报告摘要

Overall market outlook is neutral for PX, PTA, and PF.
For PTA, consider rolling down processing fees if there are no new unexpected shutdowns.

Crude oil prices falling and weak gasoline market dampen bullish sentiment for PX.
Supply increases due to large plants returning from unexpected shutdowns.
Demand from PTA is supported by many shutdowns in April-May, but PX inventory reduction is slower than expected, limiting supply relief and pressuring PX domestic prices.
PX prices around 5750 CNY/ton; short-term absolute level is not too high, with limited downside. Factor in potential supply changes in June.

-现货 prices near 5750 CNY/ton, with active downstream buying via point pricing.

TA social inventory is high, primarily in warehouse form.
PTA supply may restart in May, increasing inventory pressure from June onwards.
TA processing fee at a stage high; medium-term outlook weak due to potential inventory builds.

Shorter poly fiber (PF) has a relatively better market position, with low inventory and steady downstream purchases.
Profit for PF production is slightly stronger compared to raw material costs.