2025-06-13-Jefferies-尼尔森欧洲软饮料_截至5月18日的4周情况_17页_572kb

报告摘要

Summary

Overview

The June 13, 2025, Jefferies equity research report on Europe's beverages sector highlights a mixed performance in soft drinks, with value growth of +2.1% in April-year-on-year, driven by strong price/mix (+5.8%) but suppressed volume (-3.7%). Resilience in the category is attributed to strong execution and distribution-pipeline improvements, with positive momentum expected from receding winter weather and favorable May conditions. Beer is noted for greater re-rating potential amidst volatility stabilization.

Category Dynamics

Soft drinks volumes declined, while beer showed strength. Advancements in operational efficiency and portfolio management support sustained growth. Key drivers include reduced reliance metrics and geographical shifts influenced by weather patterns.

Key Takeaways:

April 2025 CSD value +2.1%, volumes -3.7%, price/mix +5.8% vs prior +6.8%/ +3.5%.
Beer sector benefits from improved timing and investor sentiment.
Germany and UK faced volatility in April, while France and Italy demonstrated positive growth patterns.

Equity Recommendations

CCEP (Buy): DCF-based PT, emphasizing steady-state outlook, solid cash returns, and diversified consumer base. Recession sensitivity balances upside, but market dominance provides stability.
CCH (Buy): Next fiscal introduces strategic catalysts, portfolio strength, and financial stability support the uptick in PT.
Fever Tree (Hold): US deal with TAP structure provides upside in scale; performance transition.

Distribution and Market Adaptation:
Strategic partnerships focus on expansion in mature markets, with improved execution schemes in Western Europe offsetting declines in other territories.

Risks and Opportunities

Risks:

Macroeconomic instability, FX volatility, consumer behavior shifts.
Competitive pressures, especially in declining markets.
Input costs and regulatory changes, compounded by operational hurdles in specific regions.

Opportunities: