2025-06-13-Jefferies-欧洲食品_家庭及个人护理行业尼尔森数据_截至5月18日的4周情况_19页_1mb

European Food & HPC Market Overview

Key Trend: Overall volume-led slowdown in growth. Food outperforms HPC due to coffee pricing and ice cream seasonality. Private label gains significant traction in yogurt, coffee, and tissue categories, while skin care and cosmetics face softer growth. Laundry growth improves, but Henkel loses market share.

Category-Specific Insights

1. Yogurt

   • Sales slowdown driven by declining volumes, especially in yogurt drinks and total yogurt.
   • Private label dominates, gaining share amid Danone's market share losses.
   • Market growth decelerating, with pricing adjustments offsetting some declines.

2. Coffee

   • Volume-led slowdown despite price increases.
   • Private label strength accelerates, capturing significant market share with Nestlé and JDEP brands declining amid competition.

3. Ice Cream

   • Growth moderated as volume declines offset higher pricing (e.g., Unilever retrenches amid competition).
   • Unilever struggles, while private label gains share.

4. Laundry/HPC

   • Sales decelerating as Henkel loses share, hindered by private label growth. Unilever manages to rebound slightly.

5. Skin Care/Cosmetics

   • Cosmetics segment decelerates further (esp. for L'Oreal), with pricing marginal improvements but volume pressures ongoing.
   • Private label share gain improves despite market fragmentation.

Company Performances

• Danone: Sales decline accelerated as volumes drop significantly; yogurt total sales decelerate, yogurt drinks face higher competition.
• Unilever: Deodorant improves (7.7% growth), Ice Cream reduces prices and volumes, Laundry slows but holds net share.
• L'Oreal: Skin Care (mild +ve) 2.7% growth with share gain; Cosmetics (-4.6% YOY) loses share amid pricing challenges.
• Henkel (mild -ve): Laundry continues weak, with volume and pricing halts costing market share.
• Haleon (+ neutral): Toothpaste growth slows, but market share gain driven by pricing moderation.
• Essity (-ve): Toilet Paper sales decline due to volume drop and private label competition despite pricing tailwinds.

Investment Outlook/Disclosure

Inflation delays consumer basket adjustments; pricing moderation but stronger volume declines areas not addressed. Private label and HPC categories offer strong growth but face increased competition and pricing constraints.