20140507-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_–_07_May_2014_11页_572kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 07 May 2014

Core Content Overview

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the oil and gas market in Asia and globally, focusing on recent price movements, company performance, and analyst ratings. It includes information on crude oil, natural gas, and related products, as well as insights into the performance of key companies and their market valuations.

Key Market Trends

Natural Gas Price Drop: Natural gas prices fell by 2.4% overnight.
Stock Market Decline: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both declined by 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.
China's Kerosene Output: China's 1Q14 kerosene output increased by 20.8% YoY, with the output ratio rising to 5.80% from 5.24% in 2013.
China's Oil Demand: Improved in the second half of April, with retail margins climbing due to the slower increase in wholesale prices compared to retail prices.
Gasoline Price Stability: China is likely to maintain the current gasoline price ceiling on 10 May.
Sembcorp Marine: Reported a 3% YoY increase in 1Q14 profit, but was downgraded to Hold due to flat operating margins and delayed benefits from the new Tuas yard.
ABS FLNG Contract: ABS secured a classification contract for Petronas's second FLNG project, indicating continued growth in LNG.
Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical: April revenues rose by 7.15% YoY, with year-to-date growth of 6.5% YoY.
CPC Cracker Utilization: Increased to 100% in early May, up from 85% in late April, while its No. 5 cracker is undergoing 75-day maintenance.
Philippines' Otto's Contract: Approved to revise work plans for Contract 55 after BHP Billiton's withdrawal last year.
BP's LNG Production: Aiming to increase production from 107 cargoes in 2013 to 119 cargoes from the Tangguh field in Indonesia.

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (as of 06 May 2014)

Commodity	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Dollar Chg. 1D	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	107.06	-0.66	-0.6%	-1.8%	0.4%
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	99.50	0.02	0.0%	-1.8%	-1.0%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/bbl.	104.13	-0.69	-0.7%	-2.1%	0.8%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/bbl.	108.56	-0.61	-0.6%	-3.4%	3.5%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	4.80	0.11	2.4%	-0.7%	7.4%
LNG Northeast Asia CFR	JKMSGM1 Index	USD/MMBtu	14.50	0.00	0.0%	-1.4%	-5.2%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/bbl.	113.38	-1.19	-1.0%	-4.0%	-2.1%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/bbl.	121.96	-0.46	-0.4%	-2.2%	0.1%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	600.66	0.00	0.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,308.04	-2.24	-0.2%	0.9%	0.3%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.23	-0.02	-0.3%	-0.4%	0.2%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	16,401.02	-129.53	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.1%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	1,867.72	-16.94	-0.9%	-0.6%	0.1%

Analyst Ratings and Recommendations

Asia

Company	KE Rating	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	P/E (X)	EV/EBITDA (X)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	NR	NR	218.9	99.2	9.8	6.0	11.8	1.1	1.1
Sinopec - H	NR	NR	96.0	118.7	9.4	5.3	12.2	1.1	1.1
CNOOC LTD	NR	NR	72.7	110.0	7.9	3.7	17.3	1.3	1.3
ONGC	NR	NR	48.1	22.9	11.9	6.5	16.8	1.9	1.9
Reliance Industries	NR	NR	51.9	56.0	13.6	11.2	11.9	1.6	1.6
Cairn India	Buy	443.00	10.6	15.1	5.3	3.5	25.1	1.3	3.4
BPCL	NR	NR	5.6	11.6	18.0	7.5	11.5	2.0	2.4
HPLC	NR	NR	1.9	7.7	23.1	12.9	3.7	0.9	2.5
Petron Corp	Buy	15.90	2.7	2.8	31.4	35.9	12.9	10.1	5.0
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	Buy	7.22	0.2	0.1	14.3	9.6	12.7	7.4	1.4
PTT Global Chemical PCL	Buy	87.00	9.7	22.0	9.5	7.2	14.4	1.3	2.3
Thai Oil PCL	Sell	65.00	3.3	6.5	10.3	6.8	11.7	1.2	5.9
Petronas Gas	Hold	23.50	14.2	4.2	22.2	17.3	21.4	4.5	2.4

Global Oil & Gas Majors

Company	Price (06-May)	Mkt Cap (USD b)	P/E (X)	EV/EBITDA (X)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
Exxon Mobile	102.67	442.5	13.9	8.1	19.2	2.6	2.4
Chevron	124.97	237.9	11.2	5.9	15.0	1.6	3.1
ConocoPhillips	77.08	94.6	10.4	5.7	18.3	1.8	3.5
Shell	2,346.50	261.3	14.1	5.0	9.2	4.7	1.4
BP plc	501.00	156.9	6.3	5.8	18.9	1.2	4.7
Gazprom	129.49	86.5	2.6	2.2	13.0	0.3	5.8
Rosneft Oil	6.31	66.8	3.8	4.3	20.2	0.7	6.4
LUKOIL	1,878.90	45.1	5.7	3.2	10.3	0.5	6.6
MOL Hunarian O&G	12,730.00	6.0	52.5	4.3	3.6	0.8	3.7
Petroleo Brasileiro	17.05	102.7	9.4	7.3	6.8	0.6	3.5
Total	50.72	167.9	13.6	5.0	11.7	4.7	1.6
Eni S.p.A.	18.60	94.1	13.1	4.9	8.8	1.2	2.9
Repsol S.A.	19.31	35.6	128.7	6.9	0.7	0.9	5.1
Stateoil ASA	184.60	99.4	14.7	2.6	21.8	1.7	3.8
OMV AG	33.28	15.2	9.3	3.6	9.9	0.9	3.8
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.	12.66	14.6	55.0	14.3	3.6	2.0	2.3

Key Insights

China's Energy Market: Strong kerosene output and improved oil demand in April indicate a robust energy market, with potential stability in gasoline prices.
Sembcorp Marine: Despite a 3% profit increase, the company faces challenges with flat margins and delayed growth from new facilities.
LNG Projects: ABS's FLNG classification contract and BP's increased LNG production from Tangguh reflect ongoing investment in LNG infrastructure.
Market Valuation Trends: Companies like Cairn India and PTT Global Chemical PCL are rated as Buy, while Thai Oil PCL is Sell, highlighting varied market sentiments.
Global Market Outlook: The report includes detailed valuations and price comparisons for major global oil and gas firms, with a focus on financial metrics like P/E, EV/EBITDA, and RoE.

Conclusion

The document outlines a mixed outlook for the oil and gas sector in Asia and globally, with notable performance in certain regions and companies, while others face challenges. Analyst ratings and market valuations suggest a range of investment opportunities and risks, with a focus on growth, stability, and financial performance.

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