世界银行-东亚和太平洋宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2023年年会（英）-40页_2mb

Summary of World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook 2023

The World Bank's 2023 Macro Poverty Outlook provides country-specific analyses and projections for developing nations. Below is a concise summary highlighting key economic growth, poverty outlook, and risks for the regions covered:

Cambodia

• Growth: GDP projected at 5.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024, driven by tourism and agricultural recovery.
• Poverty: Expected decline in poverty due to economic growth and social assistance programs, reversing pandemic-related increases.
• Risks: Weaker global demand, tightening financial conditions, oil/food price shocks, and domestic credit concentration in construction/real estate.

Central Pacific Islands

• Growth: Varies by country (e.g., Kiribati: 2.5%, Nauru: 2.0%, Tuvalu: 3.9%); tourism and remittances are key drivers.
• Poverty: Poverty reduction expected, but challenges include narrow economic bases and climate change vulnerability.
• Risks: Global inflation, climate disasters, fiscal deficits, and limited infrastructure.

China

• Growth: Growth slowed to 5.1% in 2023, with medium-term deceleration to 4.4% by 2025, supported by domestic demand.
• Poverty: Poverty reduction expected, with rates falling from 24.7% (upper-middle-income) to 14.3% in 2025.
• Risks: Slowing growth, property market issues, global financial tightening, and geopolitical tensions.

Fiji

• Growth: GDP projected at 7.7% in 2023, led by tourism and services; medium-term growth around 3-4%.
• Poverty: Expected decline in poverty, especially among the poorest 40%.
• Risks: Natural disasters, high inflation, fiscal deficits, and tourism slowdown.

Indonesia

• Growth: GDP expected at 5.0% in 2023, easing to 4.9% in 2024-2025, driven by services and exports.
• Poverty: Poverty rate projected to decline to 1.3% by 2023, with faster reductions in 2024-2025.
• Risks: Global commodity price volatility, fiscal risks, and potential external shocks.

Laos PDR

• Growth: GDP projected at 3.7% in 2023, mainly in services; medium-term growth around 4-5%.
• Poverty: Poverty expected to fall slightly, but risks include high inflation and debt distress.
• Risks: Currency depreciation, food price increases, and limited fiscal space.

Mongolia

• Growth: GDP projected at 5.1% in 2023, led by mining and services; medium-term growth around 3-6%.
• Poverty: Expected decline in poverty rates by 2023.
• Risks: Climate shocks, mining dependency, and external debt pressures.

Myanmar

• Growth: GDP expected at 3.0% in 2023, slowing to 2-3% thereafter, with weak external demand.
• Poverty: Poverty rate projected to remain elevated; slow reduction due to conflict and insecurity.
• Risks: Ongoing conflict, inflation, and human capital losses.

North Pacific Islands

• Growth: Varies by country (e.g., FSM: 2.8%, Palau: -1.4%, RMI: 3.0%); tourism and remittances key.
• Poverty: Poverty reduction expected in some countries by 2023-2024.
• Risks: Climate change, fiscal deficits, and external shocks.

Papua New Guinea

• Growth: GDP projected at 3.0% in 2023, with non-resource sector supporting recovery.
• Poverty: Expected slight decline, but risks include resource volatility and high inflation.
• Risks: Climate disasters, high debt, and political instability.

Philippines

• Growth: GDP expected at 5.6% in 2023, driven by private consumption and reforms.
• Poverty: Poverty rate projected to fall to 10.7% by 2025.
• Risks: Global growth slowdown, inflation, and fiscal execution delays.

Solomon Islands

• Growth: GDP projected at 1.8% in 2023, supported by infrastructure projects and remittances.
• Poverty: Expected continued reduction, but vulnerable households at risk.
• Risks: Natural disasters, fiscal deficits, and political instability.

Thailand

• Growth: GDP projected at 3.4% in 2023, led by tourism and consumption; medium-term growth around 3-4%.
• Poverty: Poverty headcount expected to drop to 9.1% by 2023.
• Risks: Global trade slowdown, climate events, and household debt.

Timor-Leste

• Growth: GDP projected at 2.4% in 2023, average 3.4% over medium term.
• Poverty: Expected slight decline, but fiscal sustainability a concern.
• Risks: Climate vulnerabilities, oil fund depletion, and political changes.

Vietnam

• Growth: GDP projected at 4.7% in 2023, slowing to 5.5% in 2024; key drivers domestic demand.
• Poverty: Poverty reduced from 3.2% to 3.0% by 2023.
• Risks: Global demand slowdown, property sector issues, and inflation.