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Analysis and Summary of Bank Equity Research Report (2025 Q3)

Overall Performance

• In Q3 2025, listed banks' performance indicators show:
  • Revenue growth: 0.91%
  • Pre-provision profit growth: 0.56%
  • Net attributable profit growth: 1.48%
• These metrics indicate gradual recovery from lower base effects, with improved fee revenue and stable interest spreads, overall consistent with market expectations.

Key Sub-Headings Summary

1. Asset Growth and Liability Management

• Earning Assets: Growth rate of 9.40%, driven by loans (7.83%) and bond investments (13.94%). Internet banks focus on expanding assets, with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showing higher growth.
• Liabilities: Deposit growth slowed to 7.80% (compared to 8.31% in Q2), partly due to market competition and debt migration. Active liability growth (10.90%) decreased significantly, reflecting reduced reliance on funding costs.

2. Net Interest Margin (NIM) Stability

• Overall NIM stabilized at 1.35% in Q3, with most banks maintaining their margins except state-owned banks, which saw a slight decline.
• The spread between asset yield (2.85%) and liability cost rate (1.62%) narrowed slightly, indicating asset-side cost reduction outpacing liability-side costs.

3. Non-Interest Income Challenges

• Non-interest income grew by 5.02%, but non-handling fee revenue faced headwinds due to bond market adjustments. Handling fee revenue improved year-over-year (4.60%), supported by strong capital markets, while other non-interest income declined due to bond market volatility.

4. Asset Quality Improvement

• Loan non-performing ratio (NPL) declined to 1.23%, with state-owned and joint-stock banks showing better stability. Credit cost (provision coverage) steadily decreased, maintaining adequate loan loss provisions.

5. Investment Recommendations

• Focus: Banks with high interest improvement potential:
  • Key Targets: Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank for deposit rollover effects.
  • Fixed Asset Investment: Jiangsu, Shandong, and other urban commercial banks whose performance benefits from infrastructure development.

6. Risks

• Factors to monitor: potential capital market downturns affecting deposits, policy execution delays, and unexpected credit deterioration in key sectors.