20250826-交银国际证券-德琪医药-B-06996.HK-CLDN18.2_ADC数据再证同类最佳_TCE平台价值远被低估_上调目标价_7页_374kb

交银国际：德琪医药（6996 HK）财务模型更新及投资评级

报告摘要（中英文对照）

Key Points:

1. Drug CLDN18.2 ADC Data:

   • Recent clinical data for CLDN18.2 ADC (ATG022) further validates its superior efficacy and safety profile in treating 3L+ CLDN18.2-positive gastric/GC/GEJ cancers.
   • ORR reached 40% in high-expression cohorts, with mPFS of 6.97 months vs competing products (e.g., 4.8 months for AZD0901).
   • Up 30% peak sales forecast; revised financial model targets 50 billion USD peak sales.

2. TCE Platform Value & BD Potential:

   • The company's second-generation TCE platform is undervalued; significant revenue-generating partnerships expected.
   • Upgraded DCF target to HKD 8.8 from HKD 6.36 (+38.3% upside).

3. Financial Model Updates:

   • Short-term losses expected until 2028, after- which expected positive EBITDA.
   • Maintained 'Buy' rating with revised peak sales forecast.

中文总结：

交银国际在最新研究报告中对德琪医药（6996 HK）给出“买入”评级，并将目标价从港币6.36元上调至港币8.80元，潜在涨幅达38.3%。分析指出，其CLDN18.2 ADC（ATG022）最新临床数据显示，针对高表达CLDN18.2的3期+胃癌患者，客观缓解率（ORR）达40%，中位无进展生存期（mPFS）6.97个月，显著优于竞品如AZD0901的4.8个月。公司上调了未来收入预测，并基于积极药物进展超预期上调了中长期销售预期。此外，公司强化了其创新平台（如AnTenGager™ TCE）的价值潜力，并看好其商业合作与海外拓展机遇。

报告预测德琪医药2025至2027年亏损收窄，自2028年起有望实现盈利。估值模型显示公司估值具备增值空间，目标市值为约港币60亿元。交银国际维持“买入”评级，建议投资者关注长期增长潜力和股价修复机会。