20230630-华安期货-2023年7月不锈钢市场展望_寻求突破_波动性变大_14页_1mb

报告摘要

核心摘要

免责声明
华安期货提示用户务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分。
本报告涉及不锈钢、精炼镍等黑色金属市场分析，包含市场展望与投资策略观点，仅供参考，不代表华安期货立场，且不构成任何投资建议。

一、市场综述

7月不锈钢市场预期突破，波动性增加，主要受以下因素支撑：

原料进口增加（ nickel铁、铬铁进口吨位量级数据），冲击国内原料价格，成本支撑减弱。
精炼镍库存偏低。
宏观政策支持，需求缓慢复苏预期。
7月钢材排产小幅增加。

二、具体分析

原料端：成本与供需

import nickel iron still at historical high, domestic nickel and chromite prices under pressure.
High inventories in both domestic and imported nickel iron and chromite lead to pass-through price erosion for stainless steel, reducing cost support.
Despite high production output, Ni/Fe prices are low due to excess supply.

利润端：

Stainless steel mills are operating in the breakeven area, profit margins at about 350元吨.
Despite weak demand, producers are reluctant to cut production due to fixed costs and the possibility of price recovery.

库存端：

Q2 inventory decline driven by downstream demand necessities.
Market inventory levels remain low, but fundamentals haven't significantly improved.
July inventory pressure may increase as demand weakens during traditional off-season.

需求端：

Global demand remains seasonally weak (specifically in Asia).
Domestic demand is constrained by sluggish consumer spending and real estate underperformance, though slower to recover than expected.
Long-term demand outlook remains positive, driven by urbanization and policy support, likely recovering slowly.

三、投资策略和展望

市场展望：

Market Sentiment: Ambiguous, inventories low but fundamentals not strong.
Price Movement: Higher volatility expected for August, market could break out of the previous range.

Investment Recommendations:

Short-term: Higher volatility → potential "break out".
Medium-term: Profitability driven by balance of fundamentals, inventory, and macro policies.
Factors: Continue monitoring Imports, Industrial Policies, and metal backward integration.

四、风险提示

Disclaimer (Repeated)
This report derives information from open sources. Use at your own risk. Not personalized advice; considerations like individual financial situation needed.

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