巴黎银行-巴西-宏观形势-巴西：选举追踪-20180131-71页_5mb

BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER - JANUARY 2018

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, focusing on candidate popularity, voter behavior, media coverage, and political party dynamics.

Main Candidates and Parties

Lula (PT)

• Party: Workers' Party (Left-wing)
• Status: Lula was a major candidate, but his eligibility was under scrutiny due to corruption convictions.
• Voter Impact: If Lula is excluded from the race, his supporters are largely undecided, but some may shift to Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT), and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB).
• Rejection Levels: High rejection among voters, partly due to the "car-wash" investigations.
• Social Media: Lula's supporters are not as active on social media as Bolsonaro's.

Bolsonaro (PSL)

• Party: Social Liberal Party (Right-wing)
• Status: Strong potential candidate, especially in the second round.
• Popularity: Has the highest number of likes on Facebook among pre-candidates.
• Media Exposure: Likely to have limited TV and radio time due to the small size of his party.
• Background: Former army officer, served in the Chamber of Deputies since 1991.

Marina Silva (REDE)

• Party: Sustainability Network Party (Centre-left)
• Status: A likely candidate for the REDE party.
• Voter Base: Attracts some of Lula's supporters if he is excluded from the race.

Ciro Gomes (PDT)

• Party: Democratic Labour Party (Centre-left)
• Status: Likely candidate for the PDT.
• Voter Base: Attracts some of Lula's supporters.

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)

• Party: Brazilian Social Democracy Party (Centre-right)
• Status: Likely candidate for the PSDB.
• Voter Base: Attracts some of Lula's supporters.

Key Information

Voting Intentions

• 1st Round: Lula has a high floor of assured votes but also a low ceiling due to high rejection.
• 2nd Round: If Lula is not in the race, Marina Silva, Bolsonaro, Alckmin, and Ciro Gomes are potential candidates.
• Voter Behavior: There is a notable shift in voter support among less known candidates.

Media Coverage

• TV and Radio Time:
  • In the 1st round, 10% of time is equally divided among candidates, while 90% is divided based on coalition size.
  • In the 2nd round, each candidate gets 50% of the time, with 10 minutes of daily ads.
• Online vs Offline: 57.8% of Brazilians have internet access, making social media a significant tool for campaign outreach. Those without internet rely more on TV and radio.

Voter Profile

• Education, Income, and Age: The document highlights the demographic distribution of voters.
• Geographical Distribution: Voter share varies across regions, with some states having higher concentrations.
• Key Issues: Voters are concerned with economic policies, social issues, and government intervention.

Political Parties

PT (Workers' Party)

• Founded: 1980
• Seats: 9 in Senate (11.1%), 57 in Chamber of Deputies (11.1%), 5 governors (18.5%).
• Candidates: Lula is the most likely, with alternatives like Fernando Haddad and Jaques Wagner.

PDT (Democratic Labour Party)

• Founded: 1979
• Seats: 2 in Senate (2.5%), 19 in Chamber of Deputies (3.7%).
• Candidate: Likely to choose Ciro Gomes.

REDE (Sustainability Network Party)

• Founded: 2013
• Seats: 1 in Senate (1.2%), 4 in Chamber of Deputies (0.8%).
• Candidate: Marina Silva is the most likely.

PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party)

• Founded: 1998
• Seats: 11 in Senate (13.6%), 51 in Chamber of Deputies (9.9%), 6 governors (22.2%).
• Candidate: Geraldo Alckmin is the most likely, with João Doria as an alternative.

PSL (Social Liberal Party)

• Founded: 1998
• Seats: 0 in Senate (0%), 3 in Chamber of Deputies (0.6%).
• Candidate: Bolsonaro is the likely choice.

PPS (Socialist People's Party)

• Founded: 1992
• Seats: 1 in Senate (1.2%), 9 in Chamber of Deputies (1.8%).
• Candidate: Luciano Huck is a potential candidate.

MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement)

• Founded: 1965
• Seats: 22 in Senate (27.2%), 64 in Chamber of Deputies (12.5%), 7 governors (25.9%).
• Role: Key in forming coalitions due to its influence in Senate, Congress, and local government.

DEM (Democrats)

• Founded: 1985
• Seats: 4 in Senate (4.9%), 29 in Chamber of Deputies (5.7%), 1 governor (3.7%).
• Candidate: Luciano Huck is a potential candidate.

NOVO (New Party)

• Founded: 2011
• Seats: 0 in Senate (0%), 0 in Chamber of Deputies (0%), 0 governors (0%).
• Candidate: Joao Amoedo is likely to be the first candidate.

Key Trends and Observations

• Voter Rejection: All candidates face high levels of rejection, but Lula has the highest.
• Media Influence: TV and radio are crucial for reaching lower-income voters without internet access, while social media plays a significant role for those with internet.
• Coalition Impact: The distribution of TV and radio time is heavily influenced by the size of the coalition in the Lower House.
• Party Influence: Parties like MDB and PSDB have substantial influence in the Senate and Congress, which can impact coalition dynamics and media time allocation.
• Candidate Migration: If Lula is excluded, his supporters may spread to other candidates, potentially affecting the race dynamics.

Summary

The 2018 Brazilian presidential election was marked by high rejection levels among all candidates, with Lula facing significant challenges due to corruption allegations. Bolsonaro emerged as a strong contender, especially in the second round, due to his social media presence and controversial stances on social issues. The document outlines the potential candidates from major parties, including Lula (PT), Bolsonaro (PSL), Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT), and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). It also highlights the importance of media coverage in the campaign, with TV and radio playing a central role, and the influence of coalition size on ad time distribution. Voter profiles show a diverse demographic, with a notable portion without internet access relying on traditional media. The document emphasizes the need to track developments in the "car-wash" scandal, which significantly affects Lula's candidacy.