巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-墨西哥：选举追踪-20180220-59页_4mb

Summary of MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER (2018)

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 Mexican presidential election, focusing on voter preferences, candidate profiles, political parties, and the broader implications of the election. It includes polling data, demographic insights, and policy comparisons among the main candidates and parties.

Main Candidates and Their Positions

• Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO, MORENA):

  • Leads in the polls with a strong early edge.
  • Has a high name recognition rate and is seen as a strong left-wing candidate.
  • Known for his opposition to economic reforms and calls for referendums on existing policies.
  • Popular among young, urban voters.
  • Has a strong base in Mexico City, which is a PRD stronghold.

• Ricardo Anaya (Frente/PAN):

  • Second in the polls, with an upward trend.
  • Has gained support from some PRD voters.
  • Known as a reformist and pro-NAFTA candidate.
  • Has a positive net perception among voters.

• José Antonio Meade (PRI):

  • Third in the polls, but has a strong traditional base.
  • Has a high name recognition but also high rejection rates.
  • Promises to deepen reforms and is seen as a candidate of continuity.
  • Has a history of holding high government positions.

Key Polling Insights

• Independent candidates:

  • Represent about 10% of the total votes.
  • There is potential for a shift in support from independent candidates to Anaya, especially from former FRENTE supporters.

• Undecided voters:

  • Make up about 25% of the electorate.
  • May play a crucial role in the outcome, as they could be influenced by the candidates' policies and media presence.

Voter Preferences by Demographics

• Youth, men, and those who dislike the current president:

  • Tend to support AMLO disproportionately.

• Middle-aged men and women from urban centres:

  • More likely to support Anaya.

• Rural areas:

  • Strongly support Meade, reflecting the PRI's traditional base.

Political Spectrum and Party Platforms

• MORENA (AMLO):

  • Left-wing platform focusing on public investment, social programs, and state involvement in key sectors.
  • Proposes referendums on existing reforms and aims to reduce trade deficits.

• PAN (Anaya):

  • More centrist, with a focus on austerity, tax cuts, and reducing red tape.
  • Supports NAFTA and trade pacts, with a focus on diversification.

• PRI (Meade):

  • Supports the reforms and aims to deepen them.
  • Focuses on fiscal consolidation and support for SMEs.

Media and Public Perception

• Media Coverage:

  • AMLO and Meade have the highest media presence.
  • Anaya's coverage has turned positive, indicating a growing influence.

• Public Perception:

  • AMLO has the highest positive net perception.
  • Meade has high rejection rates, possibly linked to insecurity and public dissatisfaction with PRI governance.

Election Calendar and Key Dates

• The presidential election is scheduled for 1 July 2018.
• The inter-campaign period from 12 February to 29 March is a time for internal party decision-making and candidate selection.
• Key dates include the end of the preparatory stage, the start of the actual campaign, and the election day.

Geographic and Demographic Distribution

• Mexico City:

  • A significant political hub, representing about 25% of the electorate.
  • A left-wing stronghold, but the 2018 election is expected to be competitive between MORENA and FRENTE.

• Regional Distribution:

  • The PRI holds power in over 50% of the states without gubernatorial elections.
  • Rural areas and traditional PRI regions are more supportive of Meade.

Economic and Social Issues

• Insecurity:

  • A major concern, with homicides at high levels.
  • AMLO's proposed amnesty for drug cartels is controversial and opposed by most voters.

• Corruption:

  • Ongoing investigations involve officials from all parties.
  • Public perception of corruption is high.

• Economy:

  • Inflation has increased, but unemployment is near lows.
  • Most Mexicans support continuing with NAFTA, despite some criticism of the current trade policies.

Sources of News and Media Consumption

• Mexicans use the web frequently but consume less news online than the global average.
• Social media is a significant source of news, though overall interest in the election remains relatively low.
• The press is seen as somewhat accurate and fair in reporting on political issues.

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexican election is a highly competitive race, with AMLO leading in popularity and support, Anaya gaining momentum, and Meade maintaining a strong base. The undecided voters and potential shifts from independent candidates could significantly impact the outcome. The political landscape is shaped by long-standing party dynamics, regional preferences, and public concerns over security, corruption, and economic policy.