巴黎银行-拉美-宏观策略-巴西：大选追踪-20180806-78页_4mb

Brazil Election Tracker - August 2018

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the political landscape in Brazil during the 2018 presidential and legislative elections, including polling data, coalition dynamics, voter profiles, and campaign strategies.

Main Candidates and Coalitions

• Alckmin (PSDB): Formed a coalition with PSD, PP, PR, PTB, DEM, PRB, SD, and PPS.

  • TV & Radio time: 5 minutes 32 seconds (44%)

• PT candidate (Lula or Haddad):

  • Lula (PT): Unlikely to register due to corruption conviction, but his presence still influences the election.
  • Fernando Haddad (PT): As Lula's substitute, his voting intentions increased significantly when Lula's support was mentioned.
  • TV & Radio time: 2 minutes 29 seconds (20%)

• Bolsonaro (PSL):

  • Coalition with PRTB
  • TV & Radio time: 9 seconds (1.2%)

• Meirelles (MDB):

  • TV & Radio time: 1 minute 57 seconds (16%)

• Marina (REDE):

  • TV & Radio time: 18 seconds (2.4%)

• Ciro Gomes (PDT):

  • TV & Radio time: 37 seconds (5.0%)

Key Polling Insights

• Spontaneous Voting Intentions:

  • Bolsonaro (PSL) has seen a significant rise in spontaneous voting intentions due to media attention and public interest.

• Voting Intentions (Without Lula):

  • Lula remains the most preferred candidate in all scenarios, despite high rejection levels.
  • His absence could lead to a shift in votes towards Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT), and Alckmin (PSDB).

• Voter Migration:

  • Lula's supporters are largely undecided, but some could shift to other candidates.
  • Haddad's voting intentions increased when respondents were informed of Lula's support.

• Rejection Levels:

  • Lula has the highest rejection level among main candidates.
  • High levels of rejection are common among all candidates.

Electoral Advertising and Media

• TV & Radio Time Allocation:

  • First Round: 10% of time is equally divided among candidates; 90% is based on coalition size in the Lower House.
  • Second Round: 50% of time is allocated to each candidate for 10-minute daily advertisements.

• Media Impact:

  • TV remains the most influential medium for voters, with 38% of respondents stating it will most influence their vote.
  • Internet access is significant, with 69.4% of Brazilians online, and social media is increasingly important for informing voters.

• Internet Access and Voting Behavior:

  • 30.6% of Brazilians had no internet access in 2016, and they rely on TV and radio for information.
  • Online voters are more likely to research candidate profiles and trust news sources.

Voter Profile

• Demographics:

  • 44% of voters are pessimistic about the country's future.
  • 23% are neutral, and 20% are optimistic.
  • 13% don't know or didn't answer.

• Education, Income, and Age:

  • Data on these demographics is available, but some data is weighted using PNAD.

• Main Problems in Brazil:

  • Unemployment, corruption, and lack of health services are the top concerns.
  • These issues are heavily covered in the media and could influence voting behavior.

• Government Priorities:

  • Increasing purchasing power is a major concern for voters.
  • The majority of voters choose three priorities, with economic issues being a common focus.

Legislative Elections

• Lower House:

  • All 513 seats are up for renewal in 2018.
  • Between 33 and 103 federal deputies are expected to seek re-election or run for another office.
  • Between 410 and 480 deputies are likely to run again.

• Senate:

  • Two-thirds of seats are up for renewal in 2018, with the remaining one-third changing in 2022.
  • Key parties and their seat distribution:
    • Leaving: MDB (16), PP (6), PSDB (8), PSB (4), PT (7), Others (13)
    • Staying: MDB (7), PSD (3), PSDB (3), PT (2), DEM (3), Others (9)

Political Reform and Campaign Rules

• TV & Radio Ads:

  • In 2018, ads are based on coalition size in the Lower House.
  • In 2020, seat distribution will be based on individual party votes.

• Campaign Funds:

  • In 2018:
    • 1.5% of total valid votes, 1.0% in at least nine states, or elected at least nine congressmen in at least nine states.
    • Public funds are available, and private donations by individuals are allowed.
  • In 2020:
    • 1.5% of total valid votes, increasing by 0.5% each election until 3.0% in 2030.
    • Public funds and spending ceilings are in place.

Key Parties and Candidates

• PDT (Democratic Labour Party):

  • Left-wing party
  • Candidate: Ciro Gomes
  • Electoral fund: BRL 61.4mn
  • TV time: 37 sec (5.0%)
  • Ciro Gomes:
    • Professional and political background includes roles as MDB advisor, Brizola advisor, and Ciro Gomes advisor.
    • Likely economic team: Roberto M. Unger, Nelson Marconi, Mauro Benevides Filho
    • Political views: Focus on workers' interests, full employment, and opposing speculation.

• PT (Workers' Party):

  • Left-wing party
  • Candidate: Lula (likely ineligible) or Haddad
  • Electoral fund: BRL 212.2mn
  • TV time: 2 min 29 sec (20%)
  • Lula:
    • Convicted in Operation Car Wash, sentenced to 12 years and 1 month in prison.
    • Lula's appeal was denied, and he is ineligible for the October election.
    • Social media popularity: Over 3.5 million likes

Internet and Social Media Trends

• Internet Access:

  • 69.4% of Brazilians had internet access in 2016.
  • 30.6% did not, relying on traditional media.

• Social Media Influence:

  • Increasing role in informing voters, especially among those with internet access.
  • Lula and Ciro Gomes have significant social media followings.

Electoral Calendar

• Electoral TV and Radio Programs:

  • Begin on 31 August
  • End on 4 October for the first round
  • End on 25 October for the second round

• Program Types:

  • Large 25-minute programs aired three times per week, twice per day
  • Smaller daily inserts spread throughout the day

Conclusion

The 2018 Brazilian election is marked by significant coalition dynamics, high voter rejection levels, and the potential impact of Lula's absence on the political landscape. TV and radio remain essential for informing voters, especially those without internet access, while social media is becoming a growing influence. Economic issues and the government's role in addressing them are central to voter concerns. The document emphasizes the importance of tracking these trends and the influence of media and social platforms on the election.