20230828-申港证券-房地产行业研究周报_心怀期待_预期将逐步转向_12页_1mb

Real Estate Industry Summary: Heart with Expectation Turning Gradual

Market Fundamentals

The real estate market shows weak sales activity but is entering a bottoming phase. Key data indicates a narrowing decline in 30-city sales area compared to the same period last year, with环比 improvements in some cities. High-quality demand is driving purchase intentions, especially with macroprudential policies and the "golden September and October" period. However, overall sales recovery is slow. We anticipate marginal improvements in September-October, particularly in high-tier cities, supporting market信心.

Policy Analysis

Recent policies emphasize a market-oriented approach, including the inclusion of "buying one property without recognizing previous loans" in "city-specific" tools. These policies are precise and aim for sustainable recovery but may affect national coordination. Debtor risks are closely monitored, with a focus on preventing systemic financial implications, leading to supportive measures like relaxed financing for real estate firms. These changes could provide合力 against market weakness.

Investment Outlook and Recommendations

Funds should keep an eye on September-October for potential validation of sales improvements. Focus on one-tier and high-tier cities, identifying companies with strong land values or better conversion of land acquisition to sales. Recommended entities include稳健 national enterprises like China Resources Land and Poly Development, along with companies like China Export & Import Corporation or Tianjin City Real Estate or private sector players. Risk is moderate, tied to uncompensated demand or widespread debt defaults.

Risks to Consider

Sales recovery may lag or disappoint if current measures prove insufficient. Debtor risks could escalate, potentially undermining market stability. Market participants should remain vigilant and prioritize diversified exposure.