20231117-招银国际-Remain_committed_to_enhance_shareholder_returns_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Financial Results Summary

Alibaba reported second-quarter fiscal year 2024 results for the period ending March 31, 2024, showing revenue of RMB224.8 billion (up 8.5% year-on-year) and non-GAAP net income of RMB40.2 billion (up 16.8% year-on-year), both in-line with Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Management Actions and Strategy

The firm decided not to proceed with a full spin-off of Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG), affirming a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. A US$2.5 billion annual dividend was announced, and the target is to improve the group's return on invested capital (ROIC) to a double-digit range by boosting profitability, monetizing non-core assets, and utilizing share repurchase programs.

Financial Performance Highlights

Adjusted EBITA increased 18.5% year-on-year to RMB42.8 billion. Key business segments showed:

Taobao and Tmall Group: Revenue up 4.2% YoY.
Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC): Strong revenue growth of 52.8% YoY.
Local Services Group: Revenue up 16% YoY.
Cainiao Smart Logistics: Revenue growth of 24.8% YoY.
Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue up 2% YoY with improved EBITA margin.

Valuation and Target Price

The target price for Alibaba ADS was revised down to US$148.3 (from US$155.00), reflecting a 4% downward adjustment in SOTP-based valuation. The current price is US$87.07, implying a downside of 70.3%. BUY recommendation is maintained due to quality cloud business revenue growth and shareholder return focus.

Forecasted Growth and Projections

Revenue is projected to grow 10.0% for FY24E. CIG revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY in the 2QFY24. Profitability is expected to improve, and ahead segment estimates were revised slightly downward in some areas.