20260319-招银国际-4Q25_results_resilient_recruitment_demand_increasing_shareholder_return_5页_655kb
报告摘要
Kanzhun Limited (BZ US) 4Q25 Results Summary
Core Content
Kanzhun Limited (BZ US) reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting resilient recruitment demand and a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. The company's performance aligns with market expectations, and it continues to invest in AI and sales & marketing (S&M) to drive future growth.
Key Financial Performance
- Total Revenue: RMB2.08bn in 4Q25, representing a 14% YoY increase.
- Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB906mn in 4Q25, up by 25% YoY.
- Earnings Guidance for 1Q26E: Total revenue is expected to grow by 6–8% YoY to RMB2.050–2.085bn, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus of RMB2.12bn due to the late start of the Spring Festival.
Business Highlights
- Recruitment Demand: Remained strong in 1Q26E after adjusting for the Spring Festival effect.
- Customer Growth: Total paid enterprise customers increased by 11% YoY to 6.8 million as of Dec 2025.
- User Engagement: Average MAUs rose by 10% YoY to 58 million in 4Q25.
- AI Advancements:
- AI improves closed-loop recruitment services, generating hundreds of millions of RMB in revenue.
- AI-powered quick hiring tool for high-end users is being scaled up for broader trials, enhancing job matching accuracy and efficiency.
- AI-assisted interview feature is fully rolled out, boosting user engagement.
Shareholder Return Strategy
- Adjusted OPM: Improved by 9ppt YoY to 41% in FY25, and is expected to increase by 1ppt YoY in FY26E despite increased AI and marketing investment.
- Dividend and Repurchase Plan: The company plans to allocate no less than 50% of prior-year adjusted net income for dividends and share repurchases during FY26–FY28.
- Shareholder Return: Estimated to be over 4% in FY26E.
Valuation and Target Price
- Target Price: US$24.00 (previously US$25.50), based on a 20x FY26E non-GAAP PE.
- Equity Valuation: Based on 20x 2026E non-GAAP PE, the target valuation is US$11.5bn.
- Valuation Per ADS: US$24.0.
- Valuation Comparison with Peers:
- Target PE multiple is at a premium to peers' average (13x).
- The company is expected to outperform the broader market benchmark in the next 12 months.
Financial Forecasts
| Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 7,356 | 8,268 | 9,227 | 10,233 | 11,225 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 83.1 | 85.1 | 85.0 | 85.2 | 85.2 |
| Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 2,710.7 | 3,602.5 | 4,017.9 | 4,389.2 | 4,768.5 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 25.7 | 32.9 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| Adjusted Net Profit Margin (%) | 36.9 | 43.6 | 43.5 | 42.9 | 42.5 |
| Adjusted Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 3,854 | 4,323 | 4,859 | 3,944 | 4,451 |
| Adjusted Operating Margin (%) | 41.8 | 42.2 | 43.3 | 42.8 | 44.4 |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.8% | 15.2% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
Share Performance
- 12-Month Price Performance:
- Absolute: -43.6%
- Relative: -42.4%
- Market Cap (US$ mn): 6,535.6
- Average 3-Month Turnover (US$ mn): 55.0
- 52-Week High/Low (US$): 24.91/13.62
- Total Issued Shares (mn): 477.4
Shareholding Structure
- Zhao Peng: 14.7%
- Tencent: 8.1%
Analyst Ratings
- CMBIGM Rating: BUY
- Target Price: US$24.00
- Up/Downside: 75.3%
- Current Price: US$13.69
Risk and Disclaimer
- The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored for individual investors.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- The value of investments may fluctuate due to market conditions.
- CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
- The report is intended for specific investors and may not be distributed to others without consent.
Analyst Certification
- The primary analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions.
- No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views in the report.
- The analyst has not traded in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report's release.
- The analyst is not an officer of any Hong Kong-listed companies covered.
- No financial interests in the covered companies are disclosed.
Legal Disclaimer
- The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
- CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States.
- The report is intended solely for major US institutional investors.
- U.S. recipients must use the report through a U.S.-registered broker-dealer.
Distribution Restrictions
- In the UK: Only for persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order.
- In Singapore: Distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and only to Accredited, Expert, or Institutional Investors.
Conclusion
Kanzhun Limited continues to show strong performance in the recruitment market, with solid revenue growth and improved profitability. The company's strategic investment in AI and S&M is expected to enhance its market position and drive long-term growth. Despite a slight downward revision in FY26E revenue guidance, the overall outlook remains positive, supported by strong earnings visibility and a focus on shareholder returns.
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