2025-06-09-花旗集团-AJ贝尔（AJBA）_AJ_Bell（AJBA.L）模型更新_12页_540kb

报告摘要

Model Update: Citigroup updated its model for AJ Bell, incorporating FY2025 results, which were stronger than expected, and a 5-7% equity market rally since the last update. Higher markets provide a ~15% tailwind to EPS estimates.
Target Price Increase: Target price raised from £335p to £395p (equivalent to 17x FY2027 EPS).
EPS Projections:
- FY2025 EPS at £24.2p (in line with consensus).
- Outer years (2026-2027) modeled at £21.8p and £24.0p, respectively; Citigroup estimates are 10-15% lower than consensus for these years.
NIM Changes: Client cash NIM is forecast to decrease from 200bps in FY2025 to 180bps in 2026-2027.
Dividend and Yield: Dividend yield projected at 3.0%, increasing to 3.2%, while net debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decline but remain elevated.

Market Position and Catalysts: Revenue growth slowed in FY2023-2025; FY2026 shows slight decline. Key upside risks include higher volume/activities and better-than-expected cash margins.
Valuation: DCF analysis uses 10% mid-term growth and 4% terminal growth to derive TP of £395p; valuation ratios (PE, P/BV) are expected to decline due to growth compression.

Rating: Sell (reiterated)
Position: Valuation appears stretched; downside risk highlighted by weak outer-year estimates and high NIM sensitivity to market conditions.

Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected volume/activities, sustained cash margin expansion.
Downside Risks: Fading market strength, slower growth in client activity margins.