2025-06-10-花旗集团-劳斯莱斯（RR）_劳斯莱斯（RR.L）_劳斯莱斯被选为英国小型模块化反应堆（SMR）的首选竞标者_10页_289kb

报告摘要

Flash Report Summary

Date: 10 June 2025

Market: Rolls Royce (RR.L)

Key Topic:

Rolls-Royce appointed preferred bidder for three Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in the UK.
Citigroup maintains a Neutral stance.

Key Points from CITI'S TAKE:

Preferred Bidder: Rolls-Royce (RR.L) becomes the preferred bidder for constructing three SMR reactors in the UK. (Content from CITI'S TAKE)
Government Spending: The UK government allocated £2.5bn for SMRs (to be distributed during 2026/7-2029/30). Citigroup notes this funding could allow building ~2-3 SMRs (noting their previous estimate required 16 SMRs, potentially valuing shares around 50p).
Dividend Yield: Expected dividend yield is 0.6%.
Analyst Certification Note: Summarizes Citigroup Investment Research analyst certifications, material conflicts, and policies.

Valuation and Price Target:

Target Price: £641 (641p) (up from recent levels).
Valuation Basis: DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model.
- Assumed 13% EBITDA CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) 2024-2029.
- Intermediate growth of 4%, long-term growth of 3%.
- WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) of 9%.
- High OCF (Operating Cash Flow) conversion ratio of ~117% (justified by IFRS15 cash accumulation).
- Equity value adjusted for debt and pension funding shortfalls (post-tax).

Current Price: £8.88
Price Change: No specific price change mentioned relative to previous target.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks:
- Economic downturn slowing aircraft demand.
- Deteriorating defence revenues/margins.
- Civil Aerospace cost performance lagging expectations.
- US Dollar weakening against Pound.
- Engine durability issues lasting longer than expected, impacting engine life costs (LTSA - Life Time Support Agreement).
Upside Potential:
- Strong data centre growth (currently ~5-10% of sales).
- US Dollar strengthening.
- Market valuing the "cash flow bulge" in working capital release around 2025 (Citigroup deems this unsustainable).