2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Extension_and_Augmentation_of_Access_76页_1mb

BURUNDI: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Extension and Augmentation of Access

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Burundi, including the Staff Report, Debt Sustainability Analysis, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director. The review was conducted in the context of the 2015 general elections and the need for an extension and augmentation of access to IMF resources. The review was completed on March 9, 2015, following discussions with Burundi officials from December 2014 to March 2015.

Key Points

1. Program Implementation and Review

• The ECF arrangement was approved in January 2012 with an initial access of 39% of quota (SDR 30 million).
• The fifth review was completed on August 25, 2014.
• The sixth review was completed successfully, with all performance criteria observed.
• The authorities requested a one-year extension of the ECF arrangement through March 2016, and an augmentation of access of SDR 10 million (13% of quota).
• The disbursement under the ECF arrangement for the sixth review was SDR 5 million.

2. Recent Economic Developments

• Economic recovery continued to gain momentum in 2014, supported by coffee production rebound, construction sector growth, and major infrastructure projects.
• Inflation moderated significantly, from 9% in 2013 to 4.5% in 2014, aided by falling oil prices.
• The external current account deficit narrowed slightly, with imports decreasing and exports increasing.
• Exchange rate remained stable, with the Burundi Franc (BIF) maintained against the US Dollar (USD) through central bank interventions.

3. Fiscal Policy and Challenges

• Corrective revenue measures adopted in July 2014 helped reverse the revenue shortfall and achieve the end-year revenue target.
• The 2015 budget included adequate appropriations for election-related spending without undermining fiscal sustainability.
• However, the budget deficit widened slightly to 0.2% of GDP due to election-related costs.
• Domestic revenue still covers less than 50% of total spending, emphasizing the need for revenue mobilization.
• Tax policy is being reformed, with the Tax Policy Department (TPD) responsible for formulation and the Office of Budget Regulation (OBR) for implementation.
• The 2015 budget faces risks due to additional election-related spending, large infrastructure projects, and under-funded liabilities.

4. Debt Sustainability

• Burundi has a narrow export base, making it vulnerable to debt distress.
• The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows improvements but still indicates high risk of debt distress.
• External debt-to-exports ratio breached the sustainability threshold in the baseline and shock scenarios.
• The debt service-to-exports ratio temporarily breached the threshold in extreme shock scenarios.
• The public debt-to-GDP ratio may breach the sustainability threshold in the short run under extreme scenarios.
• The authorities are encouraged to expedite parliamentary approval of the new debt management law, enhance debt management capacity, and develop a legal framework for public-private partnerships (PPPs).

5. Monetary and Financial Policies

• Price stability remains a priority, with headline inflation at low single digits.
• The central bank policy rate declined from 11% in June 2014 to 8% in December 2014.
• Monetary transmission mechanisms need strengthening, including liquidity management, deepening financial markets, and market-based operations.
• The banking system is well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable, but non-performing loans (NPLs) increased to 12.5% in September 2014.
• The exchange rate is being considered for greater flexibility, but authorities are concerned about volatility in a shallow foreign exchange market.
• The interbank foreign exchange market should be improved to reduce the need for central bank interventions.

6. Structural Reforms and Implementation

• Structural benchmarks for the sixth review were partially met, with three out of seven policy actions implemented as planned and one with a delay.
• The audit of extra-budgetary arrears was completed in September 2014, but the payment plan is proposed for the seventh review.
• The unification of civil servant databases was achieved in September 2014.
• The decentralization of expenditure management is being advanced, with an instruction from the Ministry of Finance planned by April 2015.
• An interface between OBR and MoF is not yet in place, but a software module will be developed by June 2015 to improve revenue flow visibility.

7. Outlook and Risks

• The macroeconomic outlook is positive, but domestic political uncertainties and election-related spending pose risks.
• External vulnerabilities remain due to coffee export fluctuations and price volatility.
• The budget deficit may exceed projections due to unforeseen spending and reduced disbursement of program support.
• Central bank financing may increase, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and monetary policy independence.

8. Donor and External Support

• The extension of the ECF is expected to catalyze donor support for addressing balance-of-payments issues.
• The Treasury Single Account and new IT systems are being implemented to improve financial management and data accuracy.
• Donor inflows and foreign direct investment have contributed to liquidity improvements.

Summary of Key Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff team and submitted on March 9, 2015.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared jointly by the IMF and IDA.
• Press Release: Includes a statement by the IMF Executive Board.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlights the IMF's support for Burundi's economic policies and the importance of structural reforms.

Conclusion

The sixth review under the ECF arrangement was successfully completed, with the IMF approving the extension and augmentation of access. The economic outlook is positive, but risks remain due to political uncertainties, fiscal pressures, and external vulnerabilities. The IMF encourages the authorities to strengthen PFM reforms, enhance tax policy coordination, and maintain fiscal discipline to ensure sustainable economic growth and debt management.