IMF国际货币组织全球-Chad_Requests-for-Disbursement-under-the-Rapid-Credit-Facility-Extension-of-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Rephasing-of-Access_49页_5mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 20/134: Chad Summary

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board approved a US$115.1 million disbursement to Chad under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to address the urgent balance of payments needs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the sharp drop in international oil prices. This disbursement is equivalent to SDR 84.12 million, representing 60% of Chad's quota, and is part of a broader package that includes the extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement and rephasing of access.

Main Points

Economic Impact:
The pandemic and oil price collapse have severely impacted Chad's economy, leading to a sharp decline in non-oil GDP growth and a worsening current account deficit. The non-oil economy is projected to contract by 0.7% in 2020, while the oil sector is expected to see a 5 percentage point drop in growth.
Health System Strain:
Chad has a weak and under-resourced health system, which is now under significant pressure due to the outbreak. The country has reported several confirmed cases, and the government has implemented containment measures such as screening travelers, closing borders, and suspending flights.
Government Response:
The government has taken measures to contain the virus and is preparing a comprehensive economic plan to mitigate the pandemic's impact. This includes increasing health-related spending, which is expected to rise by 0.3% of non-oil GDP, and seeking donor support to cover a significant portion of these costs.
Fiscal Challenges:
The fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to the pandemic's impact. The non-oil primary balance is projected to shift from a surplus to a deficit, and the overall balance of payments is expected to turn from a surplus to a deficit. The financing gap is estimated at 4.6% of non-oil GDP.
IMF Support:
The IMF's support is critical in filling the immediate external needs and preserving fiscal space for essential health expenditures. It is also expected to catalyze additional donor support. The RCF disbursement is part of a grant assistance request under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).
Debt Sustainability:
The debt sustainability assessment indicates that the debt is sustainable under the baseline scenario, but external debt risk indicators exceed thresholds under extreme shock scenarios. The debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to peak at 18.3% in 2022, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise above the 35% benchmark from 2020 to 2024.
Program Extension:
The ECF arrangement is being extended from June 29, 2020, to September 30, 2020, with rephasing of access. This extension is necessary to provide more time for the final review of the ECF program and to align with the RCF disbursement.
Donor Engagement:
The government is actively engaging with donors to secure additional support. The RCF disbursement is expected to cover 30% of the estimated balance of payments financing gap, with the remaining 70% to be addressed through loans and grants from multilateral and bilateral partners.

Key Information

Disbursement Amount: US$115.1 million (SDR 84.12 million)
Purpose: Address balance of payments needs due to the pandemic and oil price drop
RCF Access: 60% of quota
ECF Extension: From June 29, 2020, to September 30, 2020
Health Spending: Expected to increase by 0.3% of non-oil GDP
Donor Support: Required to cover the remaining financing gap
Debt Sustainability: Satisfactory under baseline, but risky under extreme scenarios
Fiscal Deficit: Temporarily increased to accommodate health and economic impacts
Current Account Deficit: Projected to widen to 13.2% of GDP in 2020
IMF Capacity to Repay: Adequate, with debt service-to-revenue ratio peaking at 18.3% in 2022

Documents Included

Press Release: Announcing the disbursement and the Executive Board's approval
Staff Report: Prepared for the Executive Board's consideration on April 14, 2020
Debt Sustainability Analysis: Conducted by IMF and IDA staff
Statement by the Executive Director: Highlighting the economic and social challenges faced by Chad

Additional Notes

The staff appraisal supports the authorities' request for RCF disbursement and ECF extension.
The government's response includes health-related spending, tax relief, and temporary suspension of utility bills for households.
Structural reforms have made some progress, but some delays are still present.
The current account deficit is expected to be financed by oil companies due to revenue declines.
The overall balance of payments is projected to shift from a surplus to a deficit.
The financing gap will be covered by RCF disbursement and donor support.
The debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to peak at 18.3% in 2022.
The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information in published reports.