2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Liberia_Ad_Hoc_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Augmentation_of_Access_and_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_30页_856kb

Liberia: IMF Ad Hoc Review and Request for Augmentation

Core Content Summary

This document outlines the IMF's Ad Hoc Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Liberia, which was conducted in September 2014. The review was triggered by the Ebola outbreak, which severely impacted the country's economy and social stability. The IMF staff report and related documents were prepared to assess the situation and support the authorities' request for additional financial assistance.

Key Issues

• Ebola Outbreak Impact:
  The outbreak has overwhelmed Liberia's weak health system, causing a sharp decline in economic activity and significant disruptions in key sectors such as agriculture, services, and mining.

  • The epidemic has led to food shortages, price increases, and depreciation pressures.
  • The current account deficit is expected to widen due to reduced exports and increased import demand.
  • Fiscal impact is substantial, with a projected $46 million decline in revenue and $67.2 million increase in spending in FY2015.
  • The fiscal deficit could rise to 11.8% of GDP in FY2015.
  • The financial sector is at risk due to potential non-performing loans and credit quality deterioration.

• Policy Response:
  The government has implemented an emergency task force and declared a state of emergency.

  • The Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) has taken measures to contain inflation and stabilize the exchange rate.
  • Travel restrictions have disrupted supply chains, leading to shortages of basic commodities and rising prices.
  • The Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) is working to improve tax collection, though revenue shortfalls are expected.
  • Social protection programs are under strain, and existing safety nets are not fully operational due to the outbreak.

• Request for Augmentation:

  • The authorities requested an ad-hoc augmentation of access under the ECF and an immediate disbursement of SDR 32.3 million (25% of quota).
  • This would help bridge the external financing gap and limit the decline in gross reserves.
  • The performance criteria for end-December 2014 were proposed to be modified to allow on-lending of the additional Fund support to the government.

• Staff Appraisal:

  • The staff supports the augmentation request due to the urgency and scale of the balance of payments need.
  • They also support the modification of performance criteria via a program adjustor.
  • The program remains on track, with continuous performance criteria (PCs) being met.
  • The fiscal and external financing needs are expected to be covered by additional donor support.

• Program Status and Financing:

  • The third ECF review was completed on July 3, 2014, and the program is still on track.
  • The proposed augmentation would complement existing donor support, including $19 million in additional budget support from the African Development Bank and World Bank.
  • The IMF's total access under the ECF would remain at 88.8% of quota, even with the augmentation.

• Repayment Capacity:

  • The authorities' capacity to repay the IMF remains adequate, with debt service expected to peak at 3.5% of domestic revenue and 1.7% of exports in 2020.
  • It should remain manageable through 2026.

• Long-Term Impacts:

  • The Ebola outbreak is expected to have long-lasting repercussions on Liberia's economy.
  • Delays in investment and infrastructure rebuilding may weaken the medium-term growth outlook.
  • There are risks of social unrest and political instability, especially if the outbreak persists or if economic conditions worsen.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF country team for the Executive Board's consideration.
• Press Release: Includes a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
• Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia: Outlines the country's position and response.
• Letter of Intent: Sent by the Liberian authorities to the IMF, included in the staff report.
• Amendment to the Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Attached as part of the documents.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (2012–2015).
• Table 2: Balance of Payments (2012–2015).
• Table 3a & 3b: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government (Millions of U.S. dollars and as a % of GDP).
• Table 4: Monetary Survey (2012–2015).
• Table 5: Financial Soundness Indicators (2012–April 2014).
• Table 6: External Financing Requirements and Sources (2012–2014).
• Table 7: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund (2014–2025).
• Table 8: Schedule of Disbursements Under the ECF Arrangements (2012–2015).
• Figure 1: Impact of the Ebola Outbreak on Real GDP Growth, Inflation, and Fiscal Position.

Conclusion

The Ebola outbreak has severely disrupted Liberia's economy, leading to reduced growth, increased inflation, and significant fiscal and external financing gaps. The IMF has approved the ad-hoc augmentation of access and modification of performance criteria to address the urgent balance of payments needs. The staff supports the request and believes that the program remains on track, with donor support expected to cover the residual financing gap. A comprehensive policy review will be conducted during the next ECF review.