IMF国际货币组织全球-Togo_Sixth-Review-under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Request-for-Augmentation-of-Access_84页_1mb

Togo: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Augmentation of Access

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the sixth and final review under Togo's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement on April 3, 2020. This review included an augmentation of access to address the economic and human impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The disbursement of SDR 96.63 million (approximately US$131.3 million) was approved, bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 247.65 million (approximately US$336.4 million).

The ECF arrangement was initially approved in May 2017 for a three-year period with total planned disbursements of SDR 176.16 million (approximately US$239.3 million). The authorities requested an additional 48.7 percent of quota (SDR 71.49 million or approximately US$97.1 million) to meet the urgent financing needs linked to the pandemic.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Program Implementation

• Togo made significant progress in several areas during the program period (2017–2019), including fiscal consolidation and public debt reduction.
• The fiscal deficit was reported at 1.7 percent of GDP at end-September 2019 and 1.2 percent of GDP at end-December 2019 (excluding the transaction with the Social Security Fund, CNSS).
• Togo complied with the WAEMU convergence criterion of a fiscal deficit not exceeding 3 percent of GDP for three consecutive years.
• Structural reforms in revenue administration and public financial management (PFM) were progressing, with improvements in tax collection and online customs procedures.
• Bank privatization remained a key challenge, with the SB on the privatization of the two state-owned banks not met by end-December 2019.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

• The economic recovery was hindered by the pandemic, with growth projections revised from 5.5 percent to 3 percent for 2020.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 3.6 percent of GDP, and the balance of payments financing gap to 1.7 percent of GDP.
• The overall public debt is projected to decrease from 70.9 percent of GDP in 2019 to 67.1 percent in 2020, continuing its downward trend.
• The healthcare spending required to combat the pandemic is estimated at CFAF 21 billion (about US$35 million or 0.6 percent of GDP), with additional investments needed for long-term health infrastructure.

Policy Discussions

• The 2020 fiscal framework aims to reduce the deficit to 1.9 percent of GDP, supported by revenue and expenditure measures.
• Revenue improvements include the introduction of property and motor vehicle taxes, as well as tighter customs controls and recovery of tax arrears.
• Spending measures include a clean-up of unduly paid salaries and pensions, better prioritization of subsidies, and reduced prices on goods and services.
• The social protection programs are being reformed to ensure better implementation and to protect the vulnerable population during the pandemic.

Medium-Term Outlook

• The medium-term growth is projected at around 5.5 percent, driven by public infrastructure improvements and a better business environment.
• Inflation is expected to rise to 2.0 percent in 2020 and remain stable in the medium term.
• The external current account deficit is projected to stabilize at 4.0 percent of GDP.
• The public debt is expected to fall below 70 percent of GDP by 2020 and 55 percent of GDP by 2022, aligning with the benchmark for countries with medium debt carrying capacity.
• However, the outlook is subject to risks, including socio-political instability, regional security threats, and global protectionism.

Key Sectors and Reforms

• Fiscal Policy: Continued consolidation, with a focus on reducing deficits and improving revenue collection.
• Structural Fiscal Reforms: Progress on tax administration, PFM, and program-based budgeting.
• Borrowing and Debt Management: Prudent borrowing and strengthening of debt management capacity.
• Financial Sector Policies: Delays in bank privatization, with reforms remaining incomplete.
• Business Environment: Togo has been a strong performer in improving the business environment, with reforms in governance and infrastructure.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board recognized the broadly satisfactory performance of Togo under the Fund-supported program and supported the augmentation of access to address the immediate challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The program review and pandemic response were integrated to provide timely support. Despite the challenges, Togo is on a path toward debt sustainability and economic recovery, provided that reforms in the financial sector are completed and public spending is efficiently managed.