德勤：2017全球航空航天及国防行业展望_29页_1mb

2017 Global Aerospace and Defense Sector Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Global Aerospace and Defense (A&D) sector outlook, prepared by Deloitte, highlights a recovery in growth after several years of subdued expansion. The overall sector is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2017, with commercial aerospace expected to see a 0.3% increase in revenue and defense sub-sector growth at a faster rate of 3.2%. The US A&D sector is anticipated to grow by 1.7% in revenue and 12.7% in operating profits, driven by increased defense spending and a stronger focus on military modernization.

Main Points

Commercial Aerospace Outlook

• Revenue Growth: The commercial aerospace sub-sector is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2017, with a marginal increase in aircraft production due to recovery from a 2016 slowdown.
• Production Increase: Commercial aircraft production is projected to rise from 1,360 units in 2016 to 1,456 units in 2017, a 7.1% increase.
• Future Projections: Over the next decade, annual production is expected to grow by 29.3%. The backlog of commercial aircraft is at an all-time high of ~13,500 units, which represents more than nine and a half years of current production.
• Demand Drivers: Passenger and freight traffic are expected to grow at 4.8% and 4.2% AAGR, respectively, over the next 20 years, driven by increasing travel demand and global wealth creation.
• Market Challenges: The sector faces challenges such as pricing pressure, product mix changes, and entry of new global competitors from China and Russia. Additionally, the supply chain is under pressure to improve capacity, throughput, quality, on-time delivery, and pricing.

Defense Sub-Sector Outlook

• Revenue Growth: The defense sub-sector is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2017, driven by US defense spending recovery and increased military spending in other regions.
• US Defense Spending: US defense budgets have returned to growth after multi-year declines. The DoD budget increased by US$20.0 billion in FY2016 and US$9.0 billion in FY2017, with the new administration showing a commitment to military modernization.
• Global Demand: Increased global tensions have led to higher defense spending in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, North Korea, and the East and South China Seas. Countries like India, South Korea, Japan, and China are increasing their military procurement.
• Opportunities: Defense contractors can expect increased demand for armored vehicles, ground attack munitions, light air support aircraft, surveillance systems, cyber protections, and maritime patrol assets.

Key Growth Regions

• Asia-Pacific and Middle East: These regions are seeing strong growth in passenger travel demand, driven by demographics and wealth creation.
• Defense Spending: The Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions are experiencing significant increases in military expenditure. The Asia and Oceania region's share of global military spending increased from 20.1% in 2010 to 25.6% in 2015, while the Americas' share decreased from 47.8% to 39.1%.
• Focus Shift: Global defense companies are increasingly focusing on India, China, the Middle East, and Russia due to their rising defense budgets and strategic importance.

Technological Advancements

• The A&D sector is leading in digital innovation, with the adoption of additive manufacturing, machine learning, advanced analytics, smart automation, and blockchain.
• Additive Manufacturing (AM): Beyond prototyping, AM is being used to improve production efficiency and cost reduction.
• Digital Transformation: The sector is undergoing a digital transformation to reduce costs, respond quicker, and invest more in product innovation, which may lead to industry consolidation.

Challenges and Trends

• One-Time Charges: The sector saw a significant increase in one-time charges in 2015 (US$10.3 billion), primarily due to program delays, cost overruns, and funding issues. These charges are expected to continue in the near future due to Brexit-related write-downs, currency fluctuations, and ongoing program delays.
• Supply Chain Transformation: The global supply chain is under pressure to increase capacity, throughput, and efficiency. Companies are focusing on consolidation, economies of scale, and investment in innovation.
• Foreign Military Sales (FMS): US defense firms are focusing on FMS in markets like India and the Middle East, with US FMS reaching a record high of US$46.6 billion in FY2015. This trend is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018.
• Efficiency: The US A&D sector remains more efficient than the rest of the world, with higher operating margins (11.6%) compared to Europe (8.5%). US companies have greater flexibility in cost management and employee productivity.

Conclusion

The A&D sector is expected to experience moderate to strong growth in 2017, with commercial aerospace growing slowly and defense growing faster. The sector is being shaped by global economic and geopolitical trends, technological advancements, and increased competition. Companies are focusing on efficiency, innovation, and international expansion to capitalize on these opportunities.