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BIS Bulletin No 82 Summary: The Contribution of Monetary Policy to Disinflation

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin evaluates the role of monetary policy in the 2021–2023 inflation surge and its subsequent decline. It explores how monetary policy contributes to disinflation, particularly in the context of large sectoral shocks and the importance of central bank credibility.

Key Takeaways

• Inflation Surge in 2021–2023: Much of the inflation increase in 2021 and 2022 was due to sectoral shocks (e.g., energy prices), which monetary policy has limited ability to counteract directly.
• Monetary Policy Effectiveness: The delayed but vigorous increases in policy interest rates since 2022 helped accelerate the disinflation process, preventing inflation from persisting at higher levels.
• Central Bank Commitment: Central banks' most significant contribution to inflation control is demonstrating a strong and credible commitment to their price stability objectives, which anchors wage- and price-setting behaviors.
• Inflation Expectations: Despite large shocks, inflation expectations remained well-anchored, indicating the effectiveness of monetary policy in managing public and private expectations.

Historical Perspective

• Unique Inflation Episode: The current inflation surge is more severe than previous episodes, with OECD countries experiencing inflation increases almost double those seen in earlier decades.
• Comparison to the 1970s: The 1970s saw persistent inflation overshooting, with disinflation efforts failing due to weak policy frameworks and prolonged expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
• Price Stability Frameworks: Post-1980s, central banks have adopted frameworks focused on price stability, which have helped prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring even during large shocks.

Factors Driving Inflation

• Energy Price Shocks: Extreme energy price increases, especially in oil and gas, played a major role in igniting the current inflation surge.
• Exchange Rate and Dollar Appreciation: The appreciation of the US dollar amplified inflationary effects and increased the persistence of inflation shocks.
• Resource Reallocation: During the pandemic, the reallocation of resources to goods during lockdowns and back to services as sectors reopened exacerbated inflation.
• Fiscal and Monetary Easing: The substantial easing of fiscal and monetary policies during the pandemic stimulated aggregate demand, contributing to the inflationary environment.

Role of Monetary Policy in Disinflation

• Inflation Expectations: Monetary policy significantly influences inflation expectations. A credible and aggressive reaction to inflation deviations helps anchor expectations and facilitates a smoother disinflation.
• Counterfactual Simulations: Simulations show that without monetary tightening, inflation would have remained higher for longer, leading to more severe economic outcomes.
• Soft Landing Possibility: If monetary policy is sufficiently credible and aggressive, it may allow for a "soft landing" at the end of the disinflation path, avoiding a deep recession.

Credibility and Policy Frameworks

• Credibility Matters: Central banks must maintain credible and consistent policy frameworks to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring.
• Reaction Function: Credibility is earned through adherence to a reaction function that aligns with the price stability mandate, ensuring that policy responses are timely and effective.
• Learning and Expectations: Households and firms dynamically update their expectations based on observed central bank behavior, which can influence the path of inflation and the effectiveness of disinflation.

Conclusion

The Bulletin concludes that while monetary policy cannot directly offset all inflationary shocks, it plays a critical role in ensuring that inflation returns to target and that low inflation remains the norm. A credible and consistent monetary policy framework is essential for maintaining price stability and guiding economic behavior towards sustainable outcomes. The simulations suggest that the current consensus on inflation returning to near 2% by 2024 may be influenced by the credibility of monetary policy tightening.

References

• Borio, C, M Lombardi, J Yetman and E Zakrajsek (2023): "The two-regime view of inflation", BIS Papers 133.
• Ciccarelli, M and B Mojon (2010): "Global inflation", The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 92, no 3, pp 524-35.
• Del Negro, M, M Giannoni and F Schorfheide (2015): "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian models", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 7, no 1, pp 168-96.
• Hofmann, B, M Lombardi, B Mojon and A Orphanides (2021): "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world", BIS Working Papers, no 954, July.
• Igan, D, E Kohlscheen, G Nodari and D Rees (2022): "Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation", BIS Bulletin, no 54, May.
• Rees, D (2023): "Commodity prices and the US Dollar", BIS Working Papers, no 1083, March.
• Rees, D and P Rungcharoenkitkul (2021): "Bottlenecks: causes and macroeconomic implications", BIS Bulletin, no 48, November.
• Wu, J and F Xia (2016): "Measuring the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy at the zero lower bound", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 48, no 2, pp 253-91.

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