2022-06-17-戴德梁行-中国房地产市场展望和机遇_常态化防控后的复苏（英）_43页_7mb

China Post-Lockdown Real Estate Market Recovery

Executive Summary

• Q2 GDP Growth: Estimated to be the lowest in 2022 due to pandemic impact.
• Economic Recovery: Second half of 2022 expected to see gradual recovery in manufacturing, services, and consumption.
• Policy Support: Government stimulus includes tax cuts, loan rate reductions, and infrastructure investments.
• Market Outlook: China remains an attractive market, with opportunities in logistics, data centers, and residential rentals.

Main Points

Real Estate Investment

• Mixed impact: Some sectors (e.g., office, retail) face volume dips, while others (e.g., logistics, data centers) see sustained interest.
• Government policies are expected to boost investor confidence and stimulate market rebound.

Office Market

• Supply growth slowing; demand expected to rebound in H2 2022.
• Opportunities in under-performing properties and suburban markets.

Retail Trends

• Neighborhood retail (15-minute life circle) receiving policy support.
• Digital and offline hybrid models seen as key recovery drivers.

Logistics & Warehousing

• Logistics sector poised for quick recovery post-production resumption.
• Warehousing investment remains a priority amid e-commerce and cold chain growth.

Residential (Long-term Rentals)

• Demand for rental apartments is rising, especially with increased focus on green spaces.
• Government support for subsidized rentals and REITs.

REITs (Infrastructure)

• Performance steady; infrastructure REITs offer long-term investment opportunities.
• Geographic diversification recommended to mitigate risks.

Key Takeaways

• Economic Impact: Pandemic likely to continue affecting Q2 performance, but recovery is expected in H2.
• Resilience: Industrial, logistics, and data centers sectors show strong resilience.
• Behavioral Shifts: Increased preference for flexible working, neighborhood retail, and green residential spaces.
• Policy Role: Continued policy support crucial for market stability and growth.

Sources

• National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC
• Cushman & Wakefield Research
• Government Policies (2022)