20170504-瑞士信贷_香港_-Asia_Pacific_Equity_Strategy_18页_920kb

Asia Pacific Equity Strategy Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the Asia Pacific equity market's performance during the reporting season, focusing on the changes in current year consensus EPS (Earnings Per Share) and the associated ratings and price targets for major companies. The analysis is based on data from Bloomberg, IBES, company reports, and Credit Suisse estimates.

Main Points

• Overall Performance:

  • 43% of Asia Pacific ex-Japan companies have reported so far, with a 2.7% upgrade in current year consensus EPS.
  • Korea has been a significant contributor to the upgrade, with 56 companies reporting and a 10.2% EPS upgrade.
  • MSCI China has seen a 0.9% EPS upgrade from 65 reported companies.
  • Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia have also shown modest upgrades of 0.7%, 1.1%, and 1%, respectively.
  • Japan's reporting season has seen a 1% EPS upgrade from 39% of reported companies.

• Sector Performance:

  • Tech, Financials, and Materials sectors have led in EPS upgrades.
  • Tech sector has 28 companies reporting, with a 9.3% EPS upgrade.
  • Materials sector has 26 companies reporting, with a 3.6% EPS upgrade.
  • Financials sector has 60 companies reporting, with a 1.2% EPS upgrade.

• Key Companies and Their Performance:

  • Samsung Electronics: Market cap $277,330 million, 16.2% EPS upgrade, price $2,245,000, rating Outperform, price target $2,900,000.
  • China Mobile: Market cap $218,010 million, -0.5% EPS change, price $82.85, rating Outperform, price target $110.00.
  • China Construction Bank: Market cap $194,651 million, 1.8% EPS upgrade, price $6.30, rating Outperform, price target $7.90.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: Market cap $170,910 million, -2.9% EPS change, price $198.00, rating Outperform, price target $205.00.
  • Tata Consultancy Services: Market cap $71,714 million, -3.2% EPS change, price $2,337.30, rating Neutral, price target $2,250.00.
  • Reliance Industries: Market cap $69,368 million, -2.1% EPS change, price $1,370.10, rating Neutral, price target $1,360.00.
  • Australia and New Zealand Banking Group: Market cap $69,185 million, -1.2% EPS change, price $31.35, rating Neutral, price target $31.00.
  • National Australia Bank: Market cap $66,543 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $33.09, rating Outperform, price target $34.50.
  • BHP Billiton: Market cap $56,030 million, 5.3% EPS upgrade, price $23.21, rating Neutral, price target $26.50.
  • China Industrial & Commercial Bank: Market cap $56,552 million, 1.2% EPS upgrade, price $5.07, rating Outperform, price target $6.30.
  • CNOOC: Market cap $51,468 million, -1.9% EPS change, price $8.97, rating Outperform, price target $13.00.
  • Baidu: Market cap $48,476 million, 3.3% EPS upgrade, price $177.40, rating Neutral, price target $181.00.
  • Ping An Insurance: Market cap $41,826 million, 4.3% EPS upgrade, price $43.70, rating Outperform, price target $59.10.
  • Bank of China: Market cap $40,300 million, -1.2% EPS change, price $3.75, rating Outperform, price target $4.40.
  • DBS Group Holdings: Market cap $38,039 million, 1.5% EPS upgrade, price $20.83, rating Neutral, price target $19.80.
  • HM Sampoerna: Market cap $33,904 million, 0.5% EPS upgrade, price $3,880, rating Neutral, price target $4,340.
  • Formosa Petrochemical: Market cap $33,454 million, 3.5% EPS upgrade, price $105.50, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Infosys: Market cap $33,253 million, -5.2% EPS change, price $934.30, rating Neutral, price target $1,000.00.
  • Telekomunikasi Indonesia: Market cap $32,864 million, 1.5% EPS upgrade, price $4,340, rating Outperform, price target $4,900.
  • Bank Central Asia: Market cap $32,547 million, 2.3% EPS upgrade, price $17,750, rating Outperform, price target $18,100.
  • Maruti Suzuki India: Market cap $31,252 million, 0.9% EPS upgrade, price $6,644.00, rating Neutral, price target $6,400.00.
  • China Unicom (Hong Kong): Market cap $30,960 million, -5.0% EPS change, price $10.06, rating Outperform, price target $14.10.
  • Hyundai Motor: Market cap $29,421 million, -5.2% EPS change, price $151,000, rating Outperform, price target $190,000.
  • Naver: Market cap $23,354 million, -4.9% EPS change, price $801,000, rating Outperform, price target $950,000.
  • China Life Insurance (Hong Kong): Market cap $22,616 million, -0.9% EPS change, price $23.65, rating Outperform, price target $28.00.
  • Largan Precision: Market cap $20,554 million, 0.1% EPS upgrade, price $122,500, rating Neutral, price target $140,000.
  • Samsung C&T: Market cap $20,554 million, 0.1% EPS upgrade, price $122,500, rating Neutral, price target $140,000.
  • Shinhan Financial Group: Market cap $20,196 million, 9.6% EPS upgrade, price $48,150, rating Outperform, price target $60,000.
  • Bank Mandiri: Market cap $20,087 million, -0.9% EPS change, price $11,575, rating Neutral, price target $11,600.
  • Ultraitech Cement: Market cap $18,386 million, -3.1% EPS change, price $4,301.40, rating Underperform, price target $2,900.00.
  • Siam Cement: Market cap $18,432 million, 2.9% EPS upgrade, price $530.00, rating Outperform, price target $602.00.
  • Wipro: Market cap $19,108 million, -5.1% EPS change, price $496.45, rating Neutral, price target $460.00.
  • ICICI Bank: Market cap $24,743 million, -1.4% EPS change, price $272.75, rating Outperform, price target $316.00.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Market cap $24,218 million, 1.7% EPS upgrade, price $13,200, rating Outperform, price target $14,500.
  • Naver: Market cap $23,354 million, -4.9% EPS change, price $801,000, rating Outperform, price target $950,000.
  • Bank of Communications (Hong Kong): Market cap $26,682 million, -0.4% EPS change, price $5.93, rating Neutral, price target $6.50.
  • China Telecom (Hong Kong): Market cap $26,682 million, -4.2% EPS change, price $3.77, rating Outperform, price target $5.30.
  • Korea Zinc: Market cap $19,804 million, -6.8% EPS change, price $230,000, rating Outperform, price target $300,000.
  • Hyundai Mobis: Market cap $19,804 million, -6.8% EPS change, price $230,000, rating Outperform, price target $300,000.
  • LG Chem: Market cap $17,171 million, 12.0% EPS upgrade, price $275,000, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • LG Electronics: Market cap $10,190 million, 72.3% EPS upgrade, price $700,000, rating Neutral, price target $650,000.
  • LG Display: Market cap $9,368 million, 44.9% EPS upgrade, price $29,600, rating Neutral, price target $30,600.
  • Samsung SDI: Market cap $8,363 million, -0.6% EPS change, price $137,500, rating Underperform, price target $120,000.
  • Nidec: Market cap $27,280 million, 1.7% EPS upgrade, price $10,260, rating Outperform, price target $14,200.
  • Kb Financial Group: Market cap $18,972 million, 13.0% EPS upgrade, price $51,300, rating Outperform, price target $65,000.
  • Aisin Seiki: Market cap $15,006 million, 0.9% EPS upgrade, price $5,710, rating Outperform, price target $6,500.
  • Shimano: Market cap $14,396 million, 0.9% EPS upgrade, price $17,410, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Toyota Industries: Market cap $16,302 million, 0.1% EPS change, price $5,610, rating Neutral, price target $5,800.
  • Denso: Market cap $34,226 million, 2.1% EPS upgrade, price $4,833, rating Neutral, price target $5,350.
  • Sharp: Market cap $18,487 million, 1.1% EPS upgrade, price $416, rating Underperform, price target $180.
  • Toyota Tsusho: Market cap $11,194 million, 0.7% EPS upgrade, price $3,545, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Daito Tst. Construction: Market cap $11,370 million, 0.7% EPS upgrade, price $15,390, rating Outperform, price target $20,000.
  • Daiwa Securities Group: Market cap $10,410 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $687, rating Neutral, price target $723.
  • JFE Holdings: Market cap $10,381 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $1,895, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Ana Holdings: Market cap $10,245 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $327, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Tokyo Electron: Market cap $21,799 million, 1.3% EPS upgrade, price $14,795, rating Neutral, price target $10,500.
  • Kansai Electric Power: Market cap $12,767 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $1,525, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Japan Airlines: Market cap $10,413 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $3,301, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Yum China Holdings: Market cap $13,482 million, 6.2% EPS upgrade, price $35.08, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage: Market cap $13,459 million, 3.2% EPS upgrade, price $47.53, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Kasikornbank: Market cap $13,109 million, 0.3% EPS upgrade, price $189.00, rating Neutral, price target $185.00.
  • Kasikornbank Fb: Market cap $13,109 million, 0.2% EPS upgrade, price $189.00, rating Neutral, price target $185.00.
  • KT & G: Market cap $12,630 million, 0.9% EPS upgrade, price $32,450, rating Outperform, price target $38,000.
  • Kia Motors: Market cap $12,585 million, -13.5% EPS change, price $35,100, rating Neutral, price target $35,000.
  • Fortescue Metals Group: Market cap $12,217 million, -2.8% EPS change, price $5.22, rating Outperform, price target $7.35.
  • Newcrest Mining: Market cap $12,103 million, -13.3% EPS change, price $20.99, rating Underperform, price target $18.20.
  • JG Summit Hdg.: Market cap $11,948 million, -3.4% EPS change, price $83.40, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Yes Bank: Market cap $11,620 million, -1.2% EPS change, price $1,632.95, rating Neutral, price target $1,474.00.
  • Siam Cement Fb: Market cap $18,363 million, 5.2% EPS upgrade, price $528.00, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Tenaga Nasional: Market cap $18,227 million, 1.1% EPS upgrade, price $13.94, rating Underperform, price target $12.50.
  • Formosa Chems. & Fibre: Market cap $18,145 million, 1.7% EPS upgrade, price $93.00, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Public Bank: Market cap $18,065 million, 0.1% EPS upgrade, price $20.14, rating Underperform, price target $18.90.
  • LG Hhld. & Hlth. Care: Market cap $11,742 million, -5.7% EPS change, price $850,000, rating Outperform, price target $1,000,000.
  • Siam Commercial Bank: Market cap $15,302 million, -1.0% EPS change, price $155.50, rating Neutral, price target $141.00.
  • Advanced Info Service: Market cap $15,251 million, -1.6% EPS change, price $177.00, rating Outperform, price target $218.00.
  • Delta Electronics: Market cap $15,218 million, -1.4% EPS change, price $176.00, rating Outperform, price target $183.00.
  • Amorepacific Group: Market cap $9,701 million, -9.4% EPS change, price $133,000, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • China Shenhua Energy: Market cap $7,949 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $18.20, rating Underperform, price target $15.30.
  • China Minsheng Banking Co Ltd: Market cap $6,728 million, 1.2% EPS upgrade, price $3.56, rating Neutral, price target $3.90.
  • China Merchants Bank: Market cap $6,728 million, 1.2% EPS upgrade, price $3.56, rating Neutral, price target $3.90.
  • China Telecom (Hong Kong): Market cap $6,728 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $3.56, rating Neutral, price target $3.90.
  • China Unicom (Hong Kong): Market cap $6,728 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $3.56, rating Neutral, price target $3.90.
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical: Market cap $20,040 million, 1.2% EPS upgrade, price $4,015, rating Outperform, price target $4,700.
  • ChungHwa Telecom: Market cap $26,727 million, -1.3% EPS change, price $103.50, rating Neutral, price target $105.00.
  • China Pacific (Group) (Hong Kong): Market cap $10,218 million, 3.4% EPS upgrade, price $28.65, rating Outperform, price target $39.10.
  • Guangdong Investment Limited: Market cap $9,864 million, 0.9% EPS upgrade, price $11.74, rating Neutral, price target $12.70.
  • Gudang Garam: Market cap $9,800 million, 0.0% EPS upgrade, price $67,800, rating Neutral, price target $74,100.
  • Haitong Securities: Market cap $5,609 million, -8.1% EPS change, price $12.80, rating Outperform, price target $16.50.
  • Keppel: Market cap $8,453 million, -6.2% EPS change, price $47.53, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Digi.Com: Market cap $9,000 million, -0.5% EPS change, price $5.01, rating Neutral, price target $5.00.
  • East Japan Railway Company: Market cap $12,805 million, 0.8% EPS upgrade, price $10,090, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • China Citic Bank: Market cap $9,352 million, -1.0% EPS change, price $4.89, rating Neutral, price target $6.40.
  • China Minsheng Banking Co Ltd: Market cap $10,245 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $327, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • Krug Thai Bank: Market cap $8,020 million, -0.5% EPS change, price $19.80, rating Underperform, price target $17.00.
  • China Shenhua En.Co.: Market cap $7,949 million, 8.8% EPS upgrade, price $18.20, rating Underperform, price target $15.30.
  • Indofood Sukses Makmur: Market cap $5,590 million, 1.4% EPS upgrade, price $8,475, rating Outperform, price target $8,700.
  • Indiabulls Housing Fin: Market cap $7,154 million, 1.9% EPS upgrade, price $1,083.60, rating Outperform, price target $1,185.00.
  • Indofood Cbp Sukses Mkm.: Market cap $7,534 million, -1.6% EPS change, price $8,600, rating Neutral, price target $9,500.
  • China Communications Construction Co Ltd: Market cap $9,000 million, -0.5% EPS change, price $5.01, rating Neutral, price target $5.00.
  • China Minsheng Banking Co Ltd: Market cap $10,245 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $327, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • China Shenhua En.Co.: Market cap $7,949 million, 8.8% EPS upgrade, price $18.20, rating Underperform, price target $15.30.
  • China Minsheng Banking Co Ltd: Market cap $10,245 million, 0.6% EPS upgrade, price $327, rating Not covered, price target n.a.
  • China Shenhua En.Co.: Market cap $7,949 million, 8.8% EPS upgrade, price $18.20, rating Underperform, price target $15.30.

Key Information

• Positive Trends:

  • The Asia Pacific ex-Japan reporting season has been strong, with a 2.7% EPS upgrade.
  • Korea's performance has been particularly strong, with a 10.2% EPS upgrade.
  • Tech, Financials, and Materials sectors have shown significant EPS upgrades.

• Negative Trends:

  • Only India, the Philippines, and Taiwan are associated with EPS downgrades.
  • Some companies, such as Amorepacific Corp, LG Hhld. & Hlth. Care, and LG Display, have seen substantial EPS upgrades but are not covered by Credit Suisse.
  • China Unicom (Hong Kong) and China Telecom (Hong Kong) have shown EPS downgrades but are still rated Outperform.

• Investment Recommendation:

  • Despite the strong reporting season, the report suggests buying the dips due to the strong MSCI Asia ex-Japan rally of almost 17% YTD.
  • The overall market is viewed as constructive, with the best ROE fundamentals in six years.

Summary

The Asia Pacific equity market has shown a positive trend in EPS upgrades during the reporting season, with significant contributions from Korea, MSCI China, and other regions. Tech, Financials, and Materials sectors have led in this performance. However, some companies in India, the Philippines, and Taiwan have experienced EPS downgrades. The report recommends buying the dips given the strong rally in MSCI Asia ex-Japan, despite the mixed EPS performance across the region.