20210608-瑞士信贷集团-Asia_Pacific_Thematic_Strategy_Leisure_Resuming_the_150-year_trend_57页_2mb

Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: Leisure

Core Content

Leisure is defined as "not work" and has seen a steady increase in time allocation over the past 150 years due to regulations, labor negotiations, and rising productivity. On average, individuals in major economies spend 3.8–5.5 hours per day on leisure. This trend is expected to continue, especially with the post-pandemic normalization of spending and the ongoing shift towards remote work and e-commerce.

Main Trends and Key Points

• Long-term trend: Work hours have steadily declined since the Industrial Revolution, with formalized reductions such as the 5-day work week introduced post-WWII and paid holidays legislated in 1938.
• Commercialization of leisure: Leisure has become more accessible and affordable due to the growth of the global middle class and technological advancements. It is no longer limited to the wealthy.
• Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic accelerated several time-saving trends, including work-from-home (WFOH), reduced business travel, and increased e-commerce adoption. These trends are expected to persist even after lockdowns.
• Expected growth: Asian leisure demand is projected to grow at 9% CAGR from 2020–2025, up from 6% CAGR in 2010–2019, with a 10% decline in 2020.
• Outperformance: The leisure sector has consistently outperformed in the Asia-Pacific region, with a 152-stock basket delivering a 13% CAGR since 2005, outperforming regional indices across countries and sub-sectors.

Key Insights

• Time allocation:
  • Men spend more time on paid work and less on unpaid work, resulting in more leisure time compared to women.
  • The young and retired have more leisure time but less disposable income.
  • Unpaid work, such as childcare and housework, accounts for 9–14% of the day and is expected to decrease with automation and lower birth rates.
• Economic impact:
  • The commercialization of leisure is a key driver of growth, with leisure spending becoming a significant part of overall consumption.
  • The rich are least affected by the pandemic and are the primary spenders on leisure, with their spending likely to resume post-vaccination.
• Technological influence:
  • E-commerce and remote work technologies are reducing the need for commuting and shopping trips, thus increasing leisure time.
  • Video-conferencing is expected to reduce business travel by up to 20%, which can be redirected to leisure activities.

Best Plays on the Theme

• Companies with strong exposure to leisure commercialization:
  • Sony (6758.T) - Strong performance and growth potential in entertainment and gaming.
  • Tencent (0700.HK) - Leading player in internet media and gaming.
  • NCSOFT (036570.KS) - Growing presence in online gaming and entertainment.
  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453.T) - Strong growth in retail and lifestyle.
  • FOOD & LIFE COMPANIES (3563.T) - Increasing demand for dining and entertainment.
  • Anta (2020.HK) - Leading in athleisure and sports goods.
  • Merida Industry (9914.TW) - Strong performance in leisure and lifestyle.
  • AOT (Airports of Thailand) (AOT.BK) - Expected to benefit from post-pandemic travel recovery.
  • Shenzhen (2313.HK) - Leading in retail and consumer goods.
  • Li Ning (2331.HK) - Strong growth in athleisure and sports apparel.

Financial Highlights

• The 152-stock leisure basket in APAC has delivered strong returns, outperforming regional indices.
• Key financial metrics (P/E, P/B, ROE) vary across companies but reflect growth potential and market valuation.
• Post-pandemic, leisure spending is expected to rebound, with a focus on domestic travel and leisure services.

Conclusion

The leisure sector is poised for continued growth and outperformance in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by long-term trends in reduced work hours, commercialization, and the impact of the pandemic. Companies with exposure to these trends, particularly in internet, gaming, retail, and travel, are expected to benefit significantly.