2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Romania–Seventh_and_Eighth_Reviews_Under_the_Stand_101页_2mb

Summary of Romania's Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the Seventh and Eighth Reviews under Romania's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the request for a waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria. It includes the staff report, a staff supplement, a press release from the IMF Executive Board, and a statement by the Executive Director for Romania. The discussions took place between January 15 and 29, 2013, and the report was finalized on June 13, 2013.

Key Points

Program Status and Performance

• Romania has made progress in restoring macroeconomic stability under the SBA but has not fully met the structural reform targets.
• The fiscal deficit (ESA terms) was reduced to 2.9% of GDP in 2012 from 5.5% in 2011, in line with EU commitments.
• However, the authorities missed three of the five quantitative performance criteria and three of the five indicative targets for end-December 2012, primarily due to delays in reimbursement for EU-funded projects and higher-than-expected cofinancing needs.
• Structural benchmarks such as publishing financial statements of public hospitals were met, but others like updating the local government investment database and defining the new accounting system were not.

Fiscal Policy

• Romania continues to implement fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the structural deficit to 0.5% of GDP in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014.
• The country seeks to achieve a headline fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP in ESA terms and 2.1% in cash terms by 2013.
• For 2014, the headline deficit is expected to be around 1.75% of GDP, with public debt projected to decline to 34% of GDP over the medium term.

Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms have been slow, particularly in the energy and transportation sectors, which are key for growth.
• The government has initiated measures such as energy price liberalization and the adoption of an Emergency Ordinance on SOE corporate governance.
• Progress was made in SOE monitoring and the cancellation of below-market bilateral contracts, but the reform agenda remains incomplete, and the impact on investment and growth has not yet materialized.

Financial Sector

• The banking sector remains well capitalized, with a prudential coverage ratio of 62% and prudential provisions covering 85.5% of NPLs 90-days past due.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased significantly in 2012 due to the economic downturn and deteriorating SOE loan quality, reaching 19.1% of the total loan portfolio by end-March 2013.
• The NBR conducted a collateral audit in 2012, revealing a €600 million provisioning gap, which was fully addressed.
• The government has taken steps to reduce SOE arrears and has committed to selling shares in state-owned enterprises and holding IPOs for Hidroelectrica and Romgaz.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The National Bank of Romania (NBR) tightened monetary conditions in late 2012 to contain inflation expectations, leading to a miss in the NFA target for end-December 2012.
• The exchange rate stabilized after the December 2012 elections, with limited depreciation against the euro in 2012 and an appreciation of 2.5% in the first four months of 2013.
• The NBR maintained international reserves at €35.7 billion by mid-May 2013 and made substantial repayments to the IMF.

External Position and Financing

• The current account deficit narrowed to below 4% of GDP in 2012 from 4.5% in 2011.
• Romania relied heavily on portfolio financing and government bond placements to finance the deficit.
• The country issued €763 million in domestic euro-denominated instruments in 2012 and continued to access international markets in 2013.
• Gross international reserves are expected to decline to €28 billion by end-2014, covering about 5.5 months of imports.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth is expected to gradually improve in 2013 and 2014, supported by resumed EU fund disbursements and increased domestic demand.
• Inflation is projected to remain above 4.5% in 2013, easing to 3.0% by end-2014 as base effects reverse and food price shocks dissipate.
• Risks to the baseline include renewed political tensions, weak EU funds absorption, and external shocks in the euro area, which could dampen growth, increase financing costs, and worsen the banking sector's situation.

Main Recommendations

• The staff report recommends the completion of the seventh and eighth reviews and supports the authorities' request for waivers of the missed performance criteria.
• Discussions on a possible new Fund-supported program could commence after the completion of the reviews.
• Continued implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as acceleration of structural reforms, is crucial for long-term growth and stability.

Political Developments

• The ruling coalition secured a strong majority in the December 2012 parliamentary elections, reinforcing political commitment to the program.
• The government has requested a follow-up arrangement to anchor economic policies and provide a buffer against financial and external risks.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Outlines the review findings and recommendations.
• Staff Supplement: Provides additional analysis and updates.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's discussion and approval.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Reflects the IMF's position and views on Romania's program.

Conclusion

Despite progress in fiscal and monetary stability, Romania's structural reform agenda remains incomplete, and the country continues to face challenges in reducing arrears and improving growth prospects. The IMF supports the authorities' request for a waiver and extension of the SBA to allow for corrective actions, emphasizing the need for continued reform efforts to enhance the business climate and attract investment.