20230909-东吴证券-固收点评_CPI同比转正_核心CPI继续修复_5页_357kb

Summary

Key Data Points

• CPI: August 2023 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% (from -0.3% in July), with a monthly increase of 0.3%. Non-food prices rose steadily, while food prices declined.
• PPI: August 2023 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% (reducing the decline from -3.4% in July), with a monthly increase of 0.2%.
• Core CPI: Continued recovery, indicating improved domestic demand with a stable year-on-year increase of 0.8%.
• PPI Factors: Industrial demand improvements and international原油 price hikes drove price increases; however, coal demand weakened seasonally.
• Bond Market View: Steady growth policies support CPI and PPI recovery, risking short-term yield rise but low long-term bearish risks due to fundamentals.
• Risks: High volatility in commodity prices and potential policy changes.