20230504-联合资信-2022年信用风险高企的行业_2023年将何去何从__11页

Summary of Report on 2022 Credit Risk in Industries

The report, published by LHRatings on their website, analyzes credit risk among A-share listed companies using the KMV model for the period 2019-2022. It focuses on the year 2022, noting increased credit risk due to various economic factors.

Key findings from the analysis:

• 2022 saw a significant increase in credit risk compared to 2019, with a concentration on certain high-risk industries.
• Using default distance as a measure, industries with low default distance (high risk) include real estate, steel, social services, electric equipment, and auto, where risks stem from economic downturn, low demand, and policy impacts.
• High-risk industries are characterized by stable demand or policy support, such as public utilities, food beverage, oil petrochemicals, and coal, which show lower default probabilities.

Changes from 2019 to 2022:

• Default distances decreased, indicating higher risk, with real estate and social services experiencing substantial drops due to factors like COVID-19 restrictions, sales declines, and regulatory policies.
• Risks are more concentrated, especially in sectors heavily impacted by the pandemic and economic slowdown.

Enterprise-level analysis:

• Private enterprises generally face higher credit risk than public ones, partly due to funding constraints, while policy support has helped narrow the gap in some cases.

Looking ahead to 2023:

• The outlook suggests recovery with policies promoting domestic demand, easing pandemic restrictions, and supporting key industries like real estate, social services, and autos.
• Anticipated improvements include increased lending to private firms and better credit conditions, though some risks remain concentrated.

The report concludes that while 2023 shows positive policy trends, ongoing economic challenges could affect industry recovery rates.