20171214-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2017.12.14_21页_1mb

报告摘要

2017/18 U.S. and Global Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated analysis of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2017/18 season, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts. It highlights the impact of supply and demand dynamics on the U.S. rice market and the global rice trade, as well as the effects of currency fluctuations and export trends.

Main U.S. Market Developments

Supply and Use

Total U.S. rice supply for 2017/18 is projected at 248.9 million cwt, 15% below the previous year and the smallest since 2003/04.
Production is estimated at 178.4 million cwt, a 20% decline from the previous year, marking the smallest U.S. rice crop since 1996/97.
Imports are at a record high of 24.5 million cwt, up 4% from the previous year.
Exports are lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 103.0 million cwt, 12% below the previous year.
Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 30.9 million cwt, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, but 33% below the previous year.
The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 14.2%, well below the previous year's 18.6% and near the long-term average.

Export Breakdown

Medium- and short-grain exports are at 29.0 million cwt, 24% below the previous year, with Mediterranean sales down sharply.
Rough-rice exports are at 36.0 million cwt, 15% below the previous year.
Milled rice exports are at 67.0 million cwt, 10% below the previous year, but increased due to stronger sales to Haiti and Iraq.

Farm Price Forecasts

Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for both classes of rice are lowered, based on lower cash prices through October and expectations for the remainder of the market year.
Long-grain SAFP is projected at $11.60 to $12.60 per cwt, up from $9.64 per cwt.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $11.80 to $12.80 per cwt, up from $10.10 per cwt.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, up from $13.70 per cwt.
U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, well above the previous year's $12.90 per cwt.
All-rice SAFP is projected at $12.30 to $13.30 per cwt, well above the previous year's $10.40 per cwt.

Price Trends

Long-grain cash prices for October are at $11.20 per cwt, unchanged from September.
California medium- and short-grain cash prices for October are at $13.60 per cwt, down 30 cents from September.
Southern medium- and short-grain cash prices for October are at $11.50 per cwt, up 30 cents from September.
U.S. medium- and short-grain cash prices for October are at $12.70 per cwt, down 40 cents from September.
Thailand's export prices increased for most grades, including $412 per ton for 100%-grade B milled white rice and $991 per ton for premium jasmine rice.
Vietnam's prices declined, with $390 per ton for 5%-broken regular milled white rice.
U.S. prices for long- and medium-grain milled rice and rough rice remained stable.

Global Market Outlook

Production Forecasts

Global rice production for 2017/18 is projected at 483.5 million tons, an increase of 2.3 million tons from the previous forecast, but 0.7% below the previous year's record.
China and Burma had upward revisions in production forecasts:
- China's production was raised by 2.0 million tons to a record 146.0 million tons, based on higher area and yield estimates.
- Burma's production was raised by 350,000 tons to a record 12.95 million tons, due to larger area and slightly higher yield.
Other countries with upward revisions include South Korea (72,000 tons), Guyana (33,000 tons), and the EU (8,000 tons).
Downward revisions were made for Australia, Argentina, Russia, and Uruguay, with reductions ranging from 22,000 to 88,000 tons.

Consumption and Stocks

Global rice consumption for 2017/18 is projected at 480.8 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast, but 2.7 million tons below production.
Global ending stocks are projected at 140.7 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, the highest since 2000/01.
China accounts for most of the increase in global ending stocks, with about two-thirds of the total.

Trade Forecasts

Global rice trade for 2018 is projected at 45.5 million tons, the second highest on record, an increase of 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast, but 1.6% below the previous year.
India and Thailand remain the largest exporters, while China and Nigeria are the largest importers.

Key Information and Highlights

U.S. export forecast was lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 103.0 million cwt, with the entire reduction in medium- and short-grain rice.
Global production increased for China, Burma, and Guyana, but decreased for Australia, Argentina, Russia, and Uruguay.
Global ending stocks reached a 14-year high, driven by China's increased production and imports.
Thailand's export prices rose due to stronger demand and a stronger Thai baht, while Vietnam's prices declined due to lack of new demand.
U.S. prices for both long- and medium-grain rice remained stable, with California prices showing some volatility.

Tables and Data Sources

Table A and Table B provide export and import forecasts for 2017 and 2018, with month-to-month and year-to-year changes.
Table 1 and Table 2 summarize U.S. rice supply and use, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.
Data sources include the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Maps show production forecasts and changes in production forecasts from the 2016/17 to 2017/18 market years.

Contact and Subscription Information

Nathan Childs: (202) 694-5292, nchilds@ers.usda.gov
Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky: (202) 694-5335, sharon.raszap@ers.usda.gov
Beverly Payton: (202) 694-5165, bpayton@ers.usda.gov
Subscription to ERS e-mail notification: http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx
Rice Monthly Tables: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/rcs-rice-outlook/
Rice Chart Gallery: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/riceshart-gallery.aspx

Summary of Key Trends

U.S. rice production declined significantly, leading to lower supply and revised export forecasts.
Global rice production increased for some countries, but decreased for others, resulting in higher global ending stocks.
Thailand's prices rose due to strong global demand and currency fluctuations, while Vietnam's prices declined.
U.S. prices remained stable, with California prices showing some volatility.
Global trade is projected to be the second highest on record, with India and Thailand as the main exporters and China and Nigeria as the main importers.