2025-06-11-Jefferies-维多利亚的秘密（VSCO）_第一季度业绩符合预先公告但财年预期下调_10页_285kb

报告摘要

Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights from Full-Year 2025 Guidance and 1Q 2025 Results

Victoria's Secret and Co. (VSCO) reported preliminary 1Q results, with full details showing revenue and operating profit within expected ranges. The 1Q revenue reached approximately $1.35B, with operating profit around $32M, slightly above initial consolidation. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09 was at the high end of the guidance range.
Despite a $20M security incident headwind, performance remained aligned with pre-announcements, suggesting resilience. However, management lowered full-year FY 2025 revenue guidance slightly to $6.2B–$6.3B, consistent with expectations but reduced operating income and EPS projections from a target of $270M–$320M op. income and $1.80–$2.20 EPS to $240M–$280M op. income and $1.65–$2.05 EPS.
Strengths noted:
- International revenue growth increased by 9% YoY in 1Q, with management expecting continued momentum in Q2.
- Digital channels (Victoria’s Secret and PINK) outperformed physical stores, highlighting channel diversification.
- PINK Apparel delivered three consecutive quarters of positive comparable store sales (COMPS), with average transaction value showing improvements.
Weaknesses identified:
- Lowered full-year EBIT and EPS guidance due to persistent challenges in the U.S. market.
- Q2 guidance underwhelmed: Sales expected at $1.38B–$1.41B (below consensus $1.415B), with gross margin declining ~35bps YoY to ~35%, and SG&A deleveraging at ~33%, leading to a narrow EPS range of $0.00–$0.15 vs. consensus expectations.
Valuation update: Jefferies reduced its price target to $28.00 from $32.00, reflecting lowered earnings expectations. The revised target implies a 26% upside.

Investment Thesis & Outlook

Victoria's Secret is on a recovery path, with brand sentiment improving and market shares stable. Financial metrics suggest the company is regaining ground despite macro challenges.
Future growth drivers include the VS and PINK brand revitalization, digital acceleration, and store optimization, with potential to recapture margin and sales simultaneously.
Risks include macro headwinds, ongoing tariff issues, and a "show-me" approach due to early stages of transformation and recent management changes.
Long-term EPS estimate for FY 2027 is $2.38 at a $28 PT. An upside scenario to a $40 PT is possible by 2027 if recovery accelerates.

Financial Summary (Illustrative 2025 Key Metrics)

Revenue: Expected to grow modestly in-line with plan; Q1 actual exceeded initial 1Q ranges.
EBIT: Reduced FY 2025 target, reflecting pressure from SG&A and margin deterioration.
EPS Trends: Declines year-over-year, expected to recover in high-single digits from current levels amid restructuring.
Notes: Data includes adjustments for tariffs and other costs, with SG&A deleveraging efforts to help offset headwinds.

Catalysts & Recommendations

Catalysts:
- Expansion of digital/off-mall channels and BOPIS services.
- Rollout of store refreshes and new product initiatives (e.g., size inclusivity, sustainability).
- Pricing of VSCO at BUY with a $28 PT; risk/reward is balanced, though near-term volatility noted.
Risks:
- Continued challenges in traffic and GM margin without sustained macro relief.
- Sustainability and ESG targets may pose margin pressures if scaled.