2025-06-11-Jefferies-多乐拉玛公司（DOL）_业绩超预期且重申财年指引_增长势头持续_10页_273kb

报告摘要

Dollarama Inc. (DOL CN) Equity Research Summary

Analyst Recommendations & Price Target

Rating: BUY
Price Target: C$223 (increased from C$180)
Target Price Change: +27% from current price

What Jefferies Likes

Strong Q1 Performance: ~5% comp sales growth (beat expectations), improved gross margins (44.2% vs. consensus 43.2%), higher operating and EBITDA, leading to better-than-expected EPS ($0.98 vs. $0.83).
Conservative yet Positive Guidance: Reiterated FY26 guidance (comp growth 3-4%, GM 44.2-45.2%, SG&A 14.2-14.7%), despite Q1 beat and strong momentum. Raised Capex to $280-300M due to Western Canada logistics investments.
Share Gain Potential: DOL well-positioned for share growth in Canada via new stores (>200 openings by 2028) and costco-like pricing. Also expanding internationally in Mexico, Colombia, etc. through Dollarcity and planned Australian acquisition.
Financial Health: Strong cash generation, history of using cash for growth and shareholder returns.

What DOL Didn't Like In The Quarter

Nothing noted as the report deemed the results "solid".

What To Expect Ahead

Continued Domestic & International Expansion: Focus on market share gains in Canada through investments (despite near-term margin pressure) and successfully growing Dollarcity in LatAm.
Durability: Keep focus on low pricing, consumer goods penetration.

Investment Thesis & Valuation

Thesis: Gain market share via pricing and low prices, fueling comp growth and cash flow for reinvestment or returns to shareholders.
Valuation: Target based on P/E (42-46x) and EV/EBITDA (26x) outlooks.

Key Risks

Canadian consumer health
Increased competition
Execution risk for organic expansion
Western Canada investment dampening margins temporarily

Catalysts

Market share gains from Canada & LatAm position (Mexico)
Successful launch and growth of Dollarcity

Financial Highlights (Q1 2025)

Revenue: C$1,295M (estimate)
Gross Profit: C$2,894M
Same-Store Sales: 4.6% vs. Consensus 3.5%
Operating Income: C$1,547M
EPS beat: C$4.16 vs. Consensus C$3.58

Summary Sentiment

Jefferies maintains a Buy on Dollarama Inc. The company demonstrated strong, resilient performance, beat estimates, and raised guidance. Despite a slight downside scenario, the overall upside potential is deemed significant compared to the downside, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to grow market share and execute its expansion strategy both domestically and internationally. Risks, primarily around temporary margin impacts from Western Canada investments and consumer vulnerabilities, are acknowledged but not seen as major impediments with the current upside scenario ranging to C$265.

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