2025-06-05-Jefferies-维兹航空（WIZZ）_2025财年业绩_2025财年EBITDA未达预期_2026财年指引意味着超25_的共识下调_7页_101kb

Wizz Air FY25 and FY26 Equity Research Summary

• FY25 Results: Actual EBITDA of €1,134m, a 6% miss against consensus; net profit beat consensus but low quality due to income tax credits. ASK growth was -0.1%, CASK ex-fuel +19.9%, with revenue growth exceeding consensus.

• FY26 Guidance: ASK expected at low to mid-teens growth vs consensus; CASK ex-fuel slightly higher but due to higher D&A/maintenance; net profit forecast range depends on RASK and CASK ex-fuel assumptions (flat or slight growth). Guidance implies potential consensus cuts.

• Analyst Views: Jefferies maintains UNDERPERFORM rating, citing risks of yield compression, competition, and fleet grounding issues. Price target set at £13.50, down 19% from current price.

• Valuation and Risks: Trading at 4.2x EV/EBITDA far-field 2027E. Key risks include yield decline from market saturation, consumer behavior, cost savings uncertainty, and geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.