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Australia Consumer Staples Equity Research: Endeavour Group Report Summary (May 20, 2025)

Rating and Price Target

• Current Rating: HOLD
• Current Price: AUD 4.08
• New Price Target: AUD 4.50 (+10% from current price)

Key Findings from Victoria State Budget

• The Victoria State Budget indicates the government anticipates continued low-single-digit growth (specifically c. 1-3% year-on-year forecasted) in EGM (electronic gaming machine) tax revenue for the period FY25-28, despite regulatory headwinds.
• These headwinds include:
  • Reduced load limits.
  • Mandatory closure periods (starting Sep 2024).
  • Mandatory pre-commitment and carded play (by Dec 2025).
  • Slower spin rates on new machines (from Dec 2025).
• While EGM tax revenue growth may slow as harm minimisation measures take effect, it remains a significant contributor (c. 3-4%) to the State Budget, especially in the context of budget pressures, acting as a mitigating factor.

Endeavour Group (EDV) Context

• Operates in retail drinks (Dan Murphy’s, BWS), hospitality (ALH Hotels), production/services, and digital platforms.
• Valuation: Current price AUD 4.08. Historical price movement fluctuates. Future growth prospects are weighed against EGM regulatory risks and ERP implementation challenges.

Valuation and Risks

• Utilizes a DCF valuation model anticipating mild EGM tax revenue growth into 2027, despite official forecasts of a slowdown due to regulations.
• Risks: Material slowdown in liquor retail sales, significant negative impact of gaming regulation, ERP implementation difficulties.
• Upside Potential: Easing of gaming regulatory pressure in Victoria and NSW.

Disclaimer
Please see analyst certifications and important disclosure information on pages 3-8 of the full report.