波兰经济社会研究中心-欧盟的增值税差距报告2021（英）-111页_2mb

Summary of the VAT Gap in the EU Report 2021

Core Content

The VAT Gap in the EU Report 2021 provides a comprehensive analysis of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap across the EU-28 Member States for the years 2015 to 2019. The VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the VAT that should have been collected (VAT Total Tax Liability, VTTL) and the actual VAT revenues collected. It reflects the potential VAT revenue lost due to non-compliance, including fraud, avoidance, bankruptcies, and administrative errors.

The report also includes an analysis of collection efficiency (C-efficiency), which measures how far the VAT system is from a perfectly enforced tax applied uniformly to all consumption. Additionally, it examines the Policy Gap, which is a separate indicator representing theoretical VAT revenue losses due to the application of exemptions and reduced rates.

Main Points

1. VAT Gap Overview (2019)

• The EU-wide VAT Gap in 2019 was EUR 134 billion, equivalent to 10.3% of the VTTL.
• VAT revenue increased by 3.8%, while VTTL increased by 2.9%, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms.
• The VAT Gap decreased by 0.8 percentage points and EUR 6.6 billion compared to 2018.

2. Country-Level VAT Gap

• Smallest Gaps: Croatia (1%), Sweden (1.4%), Cyprus (2.7%)
• Largest Gaps: Romania (34.9%), Greece (25.8%), Malta (23.5%)
• Half of the EU-28 Member States had a VAT Gap above 8.6%.
• In 18 Member States, the VAT Gap share decreased, with notable reductions in Greece, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia (between 3.2 and 2.2 percentage points).
• In Sweden, Finland, and Estonia, the VAT Gap has remained consistently below 5% of the VAT due.

3. Policy Gap and C-efficiency

• The average Policy Gap in the EU in 2019 was 44.7%, similar to the previous year.
• Rate Gap (reduced and super-reduced rates) accounted for 9.8 percentage points, and Exemption Gap (non-taxability and exemptions without right to deduct) for 34.9 percentage points.
• The C-efficiency (collection efficiency) for the EU in 2019 was 55.5%, indicating that the VAT system collected 55.5% of the potential VAT from final consumption.

4. Economic and Policy Context (2019)

• The EU experienced nominal GDP growth of 3.5% and real growth of 1.6% in 2019.
• Final consumption increased by over 1% in most Member States.
• The year was relatively stable in terms of tax regime changes and VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) adjustments.

5. Methodology

• The report uses a top-down approach based on consumption data (SUTs) to estimate the VAT Gap, consistent with the 2013 methodology.
• This approach does not allow for a breakdown of the VAT Gap by specific causes, such as fraud or avoidance.
• A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and additional tax administration variables were used to enhance the explanatory power of the econometric models.
• The report also presents fast estimates for 2020, limited to 18 Member States due to significant changes in tax regimes post-pandemic.

6. Key Determinants of VAT Gap

• The econometric analysis confirmed that the VAT Gap is influenced by economic conditions, institutional environment, economic structure, and tax administration measures.
• GDP growth and general government balance were found to explain a substantial portion of the VAT Gap variation.
• Within the control of tax administrations, IT expenditure and additional information obligations for taxpayers were the most statistically significant variables in explaining the size of the VAT Gap.

Key Information

• VAT Gap is a measure of potential revenue loss due to non-compliance.
• Policy Gap is a separate indicator, not included in the VAT Gap, and represents losses from tax exemptions and reduced rates.
• C-efficiency is an indicator of how efficiently the VAT system collects revenue.
• The top-down approach is used for consistency, but does not allow for detailed breakdowns of causes.
• The report is part of a long-running project initiated in 2013, with updates and improvements over the years.
• Fast estimates for 2020 are only provided for selected Member States due to changes in tax regimes and economic structures.

Conclusion

The 2019 VAT Gap in the EU was lower than in 2018, reflecting improved compliance and economic conditions. However, significant variations between Member States remain, with some experiencing large gaps due to structural and policy factors. The report emphasizes the need for targeted studies to further break down the VAT Gap into specific components, which could aid in the development of more effective policy measures. The use of econometric analysis and PCA enhances the understanding of the factors influencing the VAT Gap, providing a more nuanced view for policy-making.